Köln vs Mainz 05: match statistics
Köln occupies a higher position in the table (12th place) than Mainz 05 (16th place) and presents better disposition in home matches. The hosts score an average of 1.88 goals per match at home with a conversion rate of 14%, while Mainz scores an average of only 1.25 times on away trips with identical efficiency. Mainz has not kept a single clean sheet away in the entire season and concedes an average of 2.13 goals, which, given the guests' weak offense (2.75 shots on target per match), constitutes a significant weakness. The recent form of Mainz is better (1.8 points per match), but Köln has an advantage in xG at home (1.53 vs 1.09 xG for guests away), which suggests greater offensive potential. Taking into account all factors, Köln has a real chance for victory, although weak home form (25% wins) and Mainz's good streak (without defeat in the last 5 matches) make a draw a probable scenario as well.
Köln vs Mainz 05: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Köln played Mainz 05 in Bundesliga (Germany). The match was played on 17 January 2026. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
Köln: 0-2-3, 0.40 points/match. Mainz 05: 1-3-1, 1.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Köln scores 1.47 and concedes 1.71 goals per match. Mainz 05 scores 1.00 and concedes 1.71. League average: 3.28 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Köln 71%, Mainz 05 53%. Over 2.5: Köln 53%, Mainz 05 47%. League level: BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 64%.
xG, shots and style
Köln has higher xG: 1.42 vs 1.26. Köln: 12.8 shots per match, Mainz 05: 10.8.
Match halves
Köln: half-time lead 18%, second-half goals 0.94. Mainz 05: half-time lead 24%, second-half goals 0.53.
Goals by minute
Köln: 76-90+ (11 goals). Mainz 05: 31-45+ (4 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Bundesliga: 3.28 goals per match, BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 64%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-0. Average goals 1.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Köln occupies a higher position in the table (12th place) than Mainz 05 (16th place) and presents better disposition in home matches. The hosts score an average of 1.88 goals per match at home with a conversion rate of 14%, while Mainz scores an average of only 1.25 times on away trips with identical efficiency. Mainz has not kept a single clean sheet away in the entire season and concedes an average of 2.13 goals, which, given the guests' weak offense (2.75 shots on target per match), constitutes a significant weakness. The recent form of Mainz is better (1.8 points per match), but Köln has an advantage in xG at home (1.53 vs 1.09 xG for guests away), which suggests greater offensive potential. Taking into account all factors, Köln has a real chance for victory, although weak home form (25% wins) and Mainz's good streak (without defeat in the last 5 matches) make a draw a probable scenario as well.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Köln | Mainz 05 | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 36% | 27% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Mainz 05 is 200% better for: last-5 form.
0.4 pts / match - Köln · 1.2 pts / match - Mainz 05
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Köln is 47% better for: goals scored per match.
1.47 goals / match - Köln · 1 goals / match - Mainz 05
Köln scores in 82% of matches (14 of 17 matches), while Mainz 05 keeps a clean sheet in 6% (1 of 17 matches).
Mainz 05 scores in 53% of matches (9 of 17 matches), while Köln keeps a clean sheet in 12% (2 of 17 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Köln
Over / Under - Mainz 05
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Köln - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 18% of matches and wins 24%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Mainz 05 - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 24% of matches and wins 12%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -4 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 20% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +2 | -2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (11 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (4 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): -7 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Köln
Mainz 05
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Bundesliga).
Teams vs league
| Köln | Liga | Mainz 05 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 3.18 | 3.28 | ▼ 2.71 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 71% | 58% | ▼ 53% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 53% | 64% | ▼ 47% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 12% | 24% | ▼ 6% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 65% | 78% | ▼ 76% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 88% | 83% | • 82% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Köln 1 - 0 - 0 Mainz 05. Average goals 1.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Köln vs Mainz 05?
The Bundesliga match finished Köln 2:1 Mainz 05. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Köln vs Mainz 05?
Köln score 1.47 goals per game on average and Mainz 05 1.00. The Bundesliga average is 3.28 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 64% of games. Both teams score in 71% of Köln's matches and 53% of Mainz 05's.
What form are Köln and Mainz 05 in?
Over the last 5 games Köln have a 0-2-3 record (0.40 points per game) and Mainz 05 1-3-1 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Köln vs Mainz 05?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.