Konyaspor vs Kocaelispor: match statistics

Konyaspor head into the match on the back of a five-game losing streak, scoring 4 goals and conceding as many as 12, which clearly weighs against the hosts. Kocaelispor also have a poor away record, but they have collected 4 points from their last five matches, while the hosts have failed to earn a single point. The visitors create slightly better chances away from home, with an average xG of 0.94 compared to Konyaspor’s 0.83 at home, and they also register more shots on target per match: 4 to 3. Neither team has scored in their respective home and away matches so far, so a draw remains a realistic outcome. However, Konyaspor’s defence has allowed opponents an xG of 1.73 per game, compared to 1.63 for Kocaelispor. I give the visitors a slight edge, as they are showing a less disastrous results trend and should possess greater quality in the decisive moments.

The BTTS - No pick is supported by Kocaelispor’s very poor finishing: the visitors have failed to score in their only away match so far, while averaging just 0.6 goals across their last 5 games. Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their home matches to date, while Kocaelispor have failed to find the net in all of their away fixtures. The visitors’ attacking profile is also limited, with average xG of 0.94 for the season and 0.83 across their last five matches, despite recording 4 shots on target per game. However, the hosts have recently conceded as many as 2.4 goals per match, giving Kocaelispor a realistic chance of ending their scoring drought. Nevertheless, the visitors’ BTTS rate over their last 5 games stands at just 20%, making a scenario in which at least one team fails to score more likely. Additionally, BTTS has occurred in only 39% of league matches, while clean sheets have been recorded in 61%, further strengthening the BTTS - No selection.

Kocaelispor have scored just 0.6 goals per match in their last 5 games, with an average xG of 0.83, limiting the prospects of a high-scoring performance from the visitors. Konyaspor did concede as many as 2.4 goals per match during this period, but Kocaelispor scored only 3 goals in total across their five appearances. All of the league matches played by both teams so far have finished with Under 2.5 goals in 100% of cases, while the hosts’ average xG of 1.12 and the visitors’ 0.94 point to a combined scoring potential closer to 2 goals than 4. The hosts have the advantage because their opponents have yet to keep a clean sheet and allow an average of 1.63 xG, but Konyaspor themselves have scored just 0.8 goals per match in their last five games. The strongest signal is therefore Under 3.5, supported by the low attacking output of both teams and an estimated total-goals figure of 2.16.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Kocaelispor win at full-time, as the visitors were level after 45 minutes in 60% of their last five matches, while Konyaspor were trailing at that stage in 60% of cases. Konyaspor are on a very poor run of five consecutive defeats, scoring an average of just 0.8 goals and conceding as many as 2.4 per match. Kocaelispor have also been unimpressive offensively, averaging 0.6 goals in their last five appearances, but their defence has conceded significantly fewer, at 1.0 goal compared with the hosts’ 2.4. After the break, Konyaspor concede an average of 1.4 goals across their last five matches, whereas the visitors have conceded just 0.6 in this period, strengthening the possibility of them gaining the advantage late on. Data from the single relevant home-and-away fixture points to an advantage for Konyaspor, but current form and first-half results more clearly support the X/2 outcome.