Koper vs Bravo: match statistics

Bravo sit 3rd, while Koper are fifth, and over their last five matches they have averaged 1.4 points per game compared with the hosts’ 1.0. The visitors have won both of their away matches so far, scoring an average of 2 goals and conceding just 0.5 per game on the road; Koper also score 2 goals at home, but concede as many as 2. Koper’s form has weakened, with 8 goals conceded and 6 scored in their last five matches, whereas Bravo have recorded two wins despite conceding 9 goals during this period. The hosts should create chances, as indicated by their 56% possession and average xG of 1.89, higher than Bravo’s 1.53, but the visitors’ away defence has been clearly more effective so far. Bravo’s stronger away results and significantly lower number of goals conceded on the road give the visitors a slight edge, although a draw remains a realistic scenario.

The case for goals from both sides is strengthened by current form: BTTS occurred in 60% of Koper’s last 5 matches and in as many as 80% of Bravo’s fixtures. During this period, both teams scored 1.2 goals per match, while conceding 1.6 and 1.8 respectively, indicating regular opportunities for both attacks. Koper have kept a clean sheet in none of their matches this season, while Bravo average 2.0 goals away from home, making an away goal highly likely. However, the hosts have a high home xG of 1.87, and Bravo allow opponents an xG of 2.39 away from home, which clearly increases Koper’s chances of finding the net. Although both teams have a season-long BTTS rate of 50%, their recent results and Bravo’s defensive profile point towards a "BTTS - Yes" scenario.

Both teams have recorded at least 2 goals in 100% of their matches so far, which clearly supports the Over 1.5 goals line. Bravo score an average of 2.0 goals per match, while Koper concede 2.0, and the hosts have yet to keep a clean sheet. In their last five matches, the teams have conceded an average of 2.8 goals per game in total, while Bravo’s matches have gone Over 2.5 goals in 80% of cases. At the same time, neither side has recorded a match with more than 3 goals throughout the season, making Over 1.5 the safer choice compared with higher lines. The creative potential is also solid: the average xG from the last five matches stands at 2.03 for Koper and 1.41 for Bravo.

Bravo have a clearly superior seasonal record: they have won 100% of their matches, averaging 2.0 goals scored and just 0.5 conceded, while Koper have not recorded a win, scoring 0.5 goals and conceding 2.0 on average. The signal in favour of the visitors taking the lead from the outset is strong, as Bravo led at half-time in both matches played so far, while Koper went into the break trailing in both; the average first-half figures are 1.0 goal scored by the visitors and 0.0 by the hosts. Koper remain active creatively, with average xG of 1.87 compared with Bravo’s 1.53, but their shot-conversion rate is very poor at 3%, versus 13% for their opponents. In their last five matches, the hosts have failed to score before half-time and were trailing at the break in 80% of cases, further strengthening the scenario of a Bravo lead. After the interval, Koper do average 1.2 goals, but Bravo concede 1.0 during this period, which is why the 2/2 HT/FT scenario is only marginally stronger than a half-time draw followed by an away win.