Koper vs Nafta: match statistics

Koper sit higher in the table in 2nd place and have won 4 of their last five matches, but their home performances are clearly weaker: they are yet to win at home, drawing 67% of their matches and conceding an average of 1.67 goals. Nafta win 50% of their away matches, score an average of 1.5 goals and concede just 0.75, giving them a significant defensive advantage over the hosts. The visitors are also more clinical in front of goal, averaging 4.5 shots on target per match compared with Koper’s 3, while converting 13% of their attempts versus 8% for the hosts. Koper do create more high-quality chances at home, with an average xG of 1.63 compared with Nafta’s 1.44, but a very high 2.13 xG against the visitors suggests that the hosts should create opportunities. Nafta’s better organisation away from home and greater efficiency nevertheless point towards a narrow away win.

Koper have recorded BTTS in 80% of their matches, compared with 50% for Nafta and a league average of 52%, giving a moderate edge to the Goal/Goal scenario. The hosts have not kept a single clean sheet and conceded an average of 2.2 goals, while Nafta scored an average of 1.5 goals per match. Nafta do have a 25% clean-sheet rate, but their average xG against is as high as 2.13, while Koper create chances worth 1.50 xG. Koper’s recent form has been more defensive, with the team conceding just 0.8 goals across five matches and BTTS landing in 40% of those games; therefore, the advantage for BTTS - Yes is not strong. Nevertheless, Nafta scored 12 goals during this period, averaging 2.4 per match, which increases the likelihood of them exploiting the hosts’ defensive weaknesses.

Koper’s home profile is clearly goal-oriented: its matches average 4.4 goals, with at least 2 goals scored in every game. The hosts score an average of 2.2 goals but have not kept a single clean sheet, conceding an average of 2.2 goals, which increases Nafta’s chances of contributing to the scoreline. Nafta averages 1.5 goals scored, while its last five matches have produced as many as 2.4 goals per game; at the same time, Koper’s opponents create an average of 1.91 xG. Although 100% of Nafta’s matches have finished Under 3.5 goals, the 1.5 line is significantly safer, as Over 1.5 goals has landed in 100% of Koper’s matches and 75% of Nafta’s games.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Koper win at full-time (X/1), as the hosts were level at the break in 3 of their last 5 matches and did not trail at half-time in any of them. Koper’s recent form is very strong: the team won 4 of its last 5 matches, scoring an average of 1.4 goals and conceding just 0.8, while Nafta lost 2 of its last 5 outings and allowed opponents to score 1.2 goals per match. The opening phase should be cautious, as both teams recorded a half-time draw in 60% of their recent matches, while the average number of first-half goals was just 0.8 for Koper and 1.0 for Nafta. After the break, however, Koper has the arguments to tilt the result in its favour: the hosts average 1.4 goals in second halves, while Nafta conceded 0.8 goals in the second half across its last five matches.