Kotwica Kórnik vs Bałtyk Koszalin: match statistics

Bałtyk Koszalin have shown more consistent current form: they have taken 8 points from their last five matches, compared with 6 for Kotwica Kórnik, with a record of 2 wins, 2 draws and just 1 defeat. The hosts have scored 13 goals during this period but have also conceded as many as 16, highlighting their major defensive issues. Kotwica’s home performances are particularly concerning, as they have lost 100% of their matches and conceded an average of 6 goals, with an xG against of 3.06. Bałtyk are unbeaten away from home, drawing 100% of their matches so far, while their defence allows an average of just 1 goal conceded. The visitors create relatively few chances, with an average xG of 0.71, but a 25% shot conversion rate and Kotwica’s extremely vulnerable defence give them a slightly better chance of securing victory.

The signal for both sides to score is clear in their current form: both Kotwica and Bałtyk recorded BTTS in 80% of their last 5 matches. The hosts averaged 2.6 goals scored during this period but conceded as many as 3.2, while the visitors scored 2.8 goals and allowed their opponents 1.8. Neither team’s defence has kept a clean sheet in the season data, and Kotwica have a particularly weak defensive record, conceding 3.0 goals per home match. Bałtyk should take advantage of their high xG against Kotwica’s defence, recorded at 2.18, while the hosts can respond, as their opponents have recently allowed an average of 2.1 xG. Although Kotwica have failed to score in their only home match so far, the significantly stronger data from their last five appearances, together with the league BTTS average of 67%, support the BTTS - Yes scenario.

The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals, as Kotwica’s last five matches averaged 5.8 goals, while Bałtyk’s matches averaged 4.6. During this period, Kotwica conceded as many as 3.2 goals per game, whereas Bałtyk scored an average of 2.8 goals, clearly strengthening the forecast for at least two goals. Both teams recorded Over 2.5 in 80% of their last five matches, while both teams scored in 80% of their games during this period. Caution with higher lines is warranted due to the lower xG figures of 0.96 for Kotwica and 1.01 for Bałtyk; therefore, Over 1.5 offers a clearly more stable edge than Over 2.5 or Over 3.5.

Bałtyk Koszalin has the clearer first-half signal: in their last five matches, they were leading at the break in 50% of games, while Kotwica were trailing at half-time in 67%. The visitors averaged 1.25 goals scored and 0.75 conceded before the break, whereas the hosts scored 1.00 goal and conceded 1.33. Kotwica remain highly vulnerable defensively after the interval as well, conceding an average of 2.33 goals in the second half across their last five appearances, compared with 1.25 for Bałtyk. The hosts are capable of responding offensively, averaging 2.6 goals per match in this sequence, but their average of 3.2 goals conceded per game and 60% loss rate indicate that a turnaround is unlikely to be the most probable outcome. The strongest scenario is therefore Bałtyk leading at half-time and maintaining their advantage until the end of the match.