Kotwica Kórnik vs Chemik Bydgoszcz: match statistics

Kotwica Kórnik have failed to win any of their last five matches, scoring just 4 goals and conceding as many as 12, which significantly undermines their chances despite home advantage. The hosts create chances worth an average of 1.57 xG at home, but their defence allows opponents 2.36 xG and concedes an average of 3 goals per match. Chemik Bydgoszcz are also still without a win, but they have collected three draws in their last five league games, compared with just one for Kotwica. Away from home, the visitors score an average of 1 goal and have not been held scoreless in any match, although their low chance creation, at 0.57 xG, limits the prospect of a clear advantage. Neither side has kept a clean sheet, making a score draw the most likely outcome.

Seasonal data strongly support goals at both ends: Kotwica and Chemik recorded BTTS in 100% of their matches, and neither side kept a clean sheet. The hosts score an average of 1.67 goals but concede as many as 2.67, while Chemik score 1.00 goal and allow opponents 2.00 goals per match. Kotwica should create more chances, as confirmed by average xG of 1.59 and 4.67 shots on target, while Chemik’s defence allows opponents an xG of 2.18. The weaker point for this selection is the hosts’ recent scoring form over their last five matches, averaging only 0.8 goals with BTTS at 40%, but Chemik recorded BTTS in 100% of matches during this period, and both teams conceded 2.4 goals per game. With the league BTTS average at 71%, the most likely scenario remains one in which each side scores at least one goal.

Kotwica concede an average of 2.67 goals per home game, while Chemik concede 2.00 goals away from home, clearly increasing the match’s baseline scoring potential. The hosts create an average of 1.59 xG, while Chemik’s defense allows opponents 2.18 xG; additionally, Kotwica record 16.33 shots per match, including 4.67 on target. Neither team has kept a clean sheet, and at least 2 goals have been scored in 100% of their league matches so far, with both teams also finding the net. The last five matches further confirm their defensive problems, as each side has conceded 2.4 goals per game during this period. Over 1.5 goals is therefore the strongest pick: it requires just two goals, with a projected total of 3.05 goals and strong support from both goal-scoring statistics and chance quality.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time followed by a Kotwica win at full-time, as the hosts create significantly more chances: their average xG is 1.59 compared with Chemik’s 0.57, while shots on target stand at 4.67 versus 2.00. Chemik concedes an average of 2.00 goals per match, and its 2.18 expected goals against further indicate the visitors’ defensive vulnerability over the course of the match. The first half could nevertheless be evenly matched: Kotwica scored just 0.4 goals before the break across their last five matches, while Chemik were trailing at half-time in as many as 60% of those games; however, 60% of their recent matches ultimately ended in a draw. After the break, the hosts have the better record, averaging 1.0 goals compared with Chemik’s 0.5, while the visitors have not won a single second half in the available season data.