Kotwica Kórnik vs Noteć Czarnków: match statistics

Noteć Czarnków have a slight edge thanks to their more solid defence: they have conceded 15 goals over the course of the season, compared with Kotwica Kórnik’s 32, and just 5 in their last five matches, versus 19 for the hosts. Over that period, the visitors earned 7 points and the hosts 6, although Kotwica scored more goals—10 to their opponents’ 7. The hosts’ strength remains their home attacking output, averaging 2.17 goals per game, while Noteć score 1.5 per match away from home. However, the quality of chances created is similar: average xG stands at 1.57 for Kotwica at home and 1.62 for Noteć away. The visitors’ four defeats in six away matches make this pick less certain, but the extent of Kotwica’s recent defensive struggles points towards a Noteć win.

Kotwica’s recent form provides the strongest case for both teams to score: across their last 5 matches, they averaged 2.0 goals scored but conceded as many as 3.8, with BTTS landing in 80% of those games. Noteć average 1.5 goals per match this season and have failed to score in just 17% of their games, giving them a clear chance to exploit the hosts’ defensive problems. Meanwhile, Kotwica average 1.8 goals, and Noteć allow opponents chances worth 2.05 xG per match, which supports the hosts’ prospects of finding the net. Caution is warranted, however, as the teams’ season BTTS rates are only 40% and 50%, respectively, while Kotwica have failed to score in 40% of their matches. Even so, the recent results and attacking potential of both sides tilt the balance in favour of BTTS - Yes.

Kotwica average 1.8 goals scored, while Noteć concede 1.83, giving the hosts a solid foundation to find the net. The visitors score an average of 1.5 goals, while the teams’ xG figures are close, at 1.61 for Kotwica and 1.62 for Noteć, respectively. Kotwica’s last 5 matches averaged as many as 5.8 goals, compared with 2.4 in Noteć’s games, so I would not assume an equally high-scoring outcome without qualification. At least 2 goals were scored in 80% of Kotwica’s matches and 83% of Noteć’s, making Over 1.5 goals the strongest signal. Over 2.5 goals is also supported by both teams’ results, but clearing that line requires greater finishing efficiency than the selected option.

Kotwica led at the break in 3 of 5 home matches and conceded no first-half goals in any of them, while Noteć were trailing at half-time in 2 of 6 away matches. The hosts won 60% of their home matches, and the visitors lost 67% of their away games, supporting the likelihood that any lead will be maintained. Kotwica average 1.8 goals scored at home, compared with the 1.83 goals Noteć concede on the road; after the break, these averages are 1.2 and 1.33, respectively. The 1/1 HT/FT pick therefore remains the most likely outcome, though it is far from certain: across their last 5 matches, regardless of venue, Kotwica conceded an average of 3.8 goals, while Noteć conceded just 1.0.