Kozármisleny vs Karcag SE: match statistics

Kozármisleny are the favorites: they sit 5th vs Karcag’s 11th and show markedly better form — 4 wins and 1 draw in the last 5 matches, scoring 9 goals, while Karcag have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses, scoring 3 goals. At home Kozármisleny average 1.29 goals per game, 11.14 shots with 4 on target, 53% average possession and xG 1.36; visitors on the road record only 0.79 goals, 9.07 shots with 2.64 on target, 43% possession and xG 1.14. Defensively the hosts concede 1.21 goals at home and allow 1.4 xG, while Karcag concede 1.43 goals away and allow 1.62 xG; the hosts also less frequently finish matches without scoring (29% vs 43% share of scoreless matches). Additionally Kozármisleny earn 2.6 points per game in their last 5 matches versus Karcag’s 0.8, and the home win rate is 43% compared to just 14% away wins for the visitors. Considering the advantages in form, chance volume (4 shots on target vs 2.64 shots on target) and superior xG profile, I predict a home win; I assess their probability at 65%, a draw 20% and a Karcag win 15%.

I forecast BTTS - Yes (65%). Kozármisleny has BTTS at 80% in the last 5 matches and averages 1.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game, a strong short-term signal for matches with goal exchanges. Karcag has a season BTTS of 50% with season averages of 0.79 goals scored and 1.43 conceded, and in the last 5 matches they score just 0.6 goals, so the away side are less effective offensively but defensively vulnerable (both teams have conceded 39 goals this season). Combined xG for both teams is 2.78 (1.64 + 1.14), above the league average of 2.5, and the home team averages 13.8 shots and 4.87 on target vs. 9.07 and 2.64 for the visitors, increasing the likelihood of goals from both sides. Low clean sheet percentages (27% home, 21% away) and a league BTTS level of 47% further support the Goal/Goal scenario.

Based on average attacking xG and xG conceded I estimate 1.63 xG for Kozármisleny and 1.29 xG for Karcag, totaling 2.92 expected goals. This is 0.42 goals above the league average of 2.5, therefore a Poisson model yields a high probability for Over 1.5 at approximately 79%. Kozármisleny have better form and offense: in the last 5 matches they scored 9 goals (1.8 average) and register 4.87 shots on target per game versus Karcag's 2.64, generating more clear chances. Karcag have only scored 3 goals in their last 5 matches (0.6 per game) and have 0.79 goals per game for the season, but their xG against of 1.62 and an average of 1.43 goals conceded suggest defensive vulnerability. As a result the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (pick: over at the 1.5 line); Over 2.5 has a moderate probability around 56%, and Over 3.5 is less likely (~34%).

The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a Kozármisleny victory at full-time (X/1). Half-time draws occur frequently for both teams — Kozármisleny is level at the break in 53% of matches and Karcag in 57% — yielding roughly a 58% chance of an HT draw in this matchup. After the break the hosts have a clear advantage: they average 0.87 goals in second halves versus Karcag’s 0.43, have a second-half goal difference of +2 compared to the visitors’ −5, and more often decide matches late (6 goals in minutes 76–90 vs 2 for the visitors). In the last 5 matches Kozármisleny won 4 of 5 (80%) and scores an average of 1.8 goals, while Karcag has 1 win (20%) and 0.6 goals; additionally the hosts’ xG of 1.64 versus 1.14 and 4.87 shots on target versus 2.64 reinforce the home advantage. Based on these figures I assigned the X/1 scenario a 36% probability, X/X 18%, with lower probabilities for the remaining options.