Kozármisleny vs Szeged 2011: match statistics

Szeged 2011 have a slightly better record over their last five matches, collecting 4 points compared to Kozármisleny’s 3, with both teams winning one game during that period. The key difference lies in defensive performance, as the hosts have conceded 10 goals across their four matches so far, while the visitors have conceded just 3 in three games. Away from home, Szeged 2011 allow opponents an average xG of 0.65, while posting an xG of 1.01 themselves, indicating better control over chance quality despite averaging just 0.5 goals scored. Kozármisleny have lost 4 of their last 5 matches and conceded 11 goals during that period, so I give the visitors a greater chance of securing a cautious win, although their 50% away draw rate increases the risk of the points being shared.

BTTS - No is primarily supported by the limited finishing ability of both teams: across their last 5 matches, Kozármisleny and Szeged 2011 have averaged just 0.8 goals each. Szeged 2011 conceded only 0.8 goals per game during this period, while its average xG against stands at 0.89, clearly limiting the hosts’ chances of scoring. Kozármisleny are on a poor four-match losing streak and have conceded 11 goals in their last five outings, giving the visitors a realistic route to a win to nil. BTTS occurred in only 20% of Szeged’s last five matches, compared with the league average of 55%, while the hosts’ season record at home shows 0% of such games. Although Kozármisleny created chances worth 1.91 xG at home, Szeged’s defence, with an xG against of exactly 0.65 in the season data, further strengthens the scenario in which at least one team fails to score.

The strongest pick is Under 3.5 goals, as neither team has recorded a match with at least 4 goals in their league fixtures so far. Szeged have conceded just 0.8 goals per game in their last 5 outings, while their average xG against stood at 0.89, limiting the outlook for the hosts despite their 13 shots per game. Kozármisleny have a weak defensive record, conceding an average of 2.2 goals in their last 5 matches and posting an xG against of 1.75; however, Szeged scored only 0.8 goals per game during this period. The total projection of 2.35 goals is below the league average of 2.55, while the chances of exceeding the three-goal mark remain limited. The hosts’ last five matches produced Over 2.5 goals in 80% of games, but the visitors’ more disciplined defence clearly reduces the risk of a four-goal game.

Kozármisleny have lost 4 of their last 5 matches, trailing at half-time in each of them; they failed to score in the first half on every occasion and conceded an average of 1.0 goals. Szeged 2011 are more cautious before the break, having drawn at half-time in 60% of their last five matches, but the hosts have consistently made poor starts. The visitors have conceded just 0.8 goals per match recently, compared with 2.2 for Kozármisleny, while their defence allows an average xG of 0.65, compared with 1.02 allowed by the hosts. After the break, Szeged average 0.6 goals scored across their last five appearances, whereas Kozármisleny concede 1.2, strengthening the scenario in which the visitors maintain or extend their lead. The 2/2 pick remains the strongest, although the limited sample size and the visitors’ frequent half-time draws also increase the likelihood of scenarios involving a draw after 45 minutes.