Krško vs Bilje: match statistics

I predict an away win (2). Bilje sit 8th in the table versus Krško’s 13th, and this season Bilje have conceded 36 goals compared to Krško’s 45, giving the visitors a defensive edge. In the last 5 matches Bilje have scored 3 goals, recorded 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats and averaged 0.8 points per game, whereas Krško have scored 4 goals but only 0.4 points per game and failed to win any of those five fixtures (0-2-3). Stats show similar xG (1.19 for Bilje vs 1.17 for Krško) and comparable shots on target (3.2 for Bilje vs 3.3 for Krško), yet the home side have 60% of matches at home without scoring versus 30% for Bilje on the road. Given the visitors’ greater consistency in scoring at least one goal and higher average points across the last five matches, I favor a Bilje victory in what is expected to be a low-scoring game.

The forecast favors BTTS - Yes as more likely, with an estimated probability of about 58% versus 42% for No. Key points: hosts Krško have only 36% clean sheets at home (opponents score in 64% of their matches), while Bilje keep a clean sheet in just 10% of matches (hosts concede in 90% of their games). Additionally, average xG indicate Krško generate 1.33 xG and concede 1.31 xG, and Bilje have 1.19 xG and concede 1.64 xG, suggesting both teams create and give up scoring opportunities. Seasonal BTTS rates are 36% for the home side and 60% for the away side, while the league average is 50% BTTS, providing moderate support for a both-teams-to-score scenario. Considering the low average goals scored (0.91 and 0.8) but Bilje’s markedly higher tendency to concede (2.8 goals per game) along with shots on target stats 4.6 vs 3.2, the Yes scenario stands out as the strongest signal.

The model based on xG and defensive statistics projects expected goals of approximately 1.49 for Krško and 1.25 for Bilje (total 2.74), since Krško has attacking xG of 1.33 versus Bilje’s conceded xG of 1.64, and Bilje has attacking xG of 1.19 versus Krško’s conceded xG of 1.31. Bilje concedes on average 2.8 goals per game and has only 10% clean sheets, while Krško concedes 0.73 goals and has 36% clean sheets, which increases the likelihood that Bilje will concede. Bilje has featured in 80% of matches over 1.5 goals and 60% over 2.5, whereas Krško is at 45% and 27% respectively, so the risk of at least two goals is clearly elevated by the visitors’ stats. Krško averages 4.6 shots on target versus Bilje’s 3.2 and has a higher shot conversion rate (10% vs 8%), which further supports the expectation of a minimum of two goals. In light of these figures I recommend a bet on Over 1.5 (probability ~76%); Over 2.5 I assess at ~52%, and Over 3.5 at only ~29%.

The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a home win (X/1): Krško were level at the break in 45% of matches and Bilje in 40%, making a HT draw a strong signal. After the break the home side holds the advantage — Krško average 1.55 points in second halves versus Bilje’s 0.5; Krško score on average 0.55 goals after the interval, while Bilje concede 1.6 goals in the second half. The defensive and xG differential supports this tendency: Bilje concede on average 2.8 goals per match versus Krško’s 0.73 conceded, and xG is 1.33 for Krško compared with 1.19 for Bilje. Full-time data also favors the hosts — Krško won 36% of matches, while Bilje have only a 20% away win rate and a 60% away loss rate, so the home side is the more likely scorer of the decisive goal.