KS Hetman Zamosc vs Chełmianka Chełm: match statistics

Chełmianka Chełm remain unbeaten after 10 matches this season, with a record of 8 wins and 2 draws, while KS Hetman Zamość have won 3 of their 10 matches. The visitors have recorded 4 wins and a draw in their last 5 away games, while the hosts have won twice, drawn twice and lost once at home over the same period. The biggest difference lies in defence: Chełmianka have conceded just 3 goals all season and none away from home, whereas Hetman have conceded 13 goals in their last 5 matches. The hosts can still pose a threat, averaging 1.8 goals at home compared with the visitors’ 1.6 away. With both teams posting a similar shot conversion rate of 17%, Chełmianka’s advantage in shots on target away from home — 6 per match compared with Hetman’s 3 at home — points to an away win.

The strongest argument for BTTS - No is Chełmianka’s defensive record: they have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their away matches and conceded an average of just 0.4 goals across their last 5 games. Hetman have scored in every home match and averaged 2.2 goals over their last 5 outings, so breaking down the visitors’ defence is possible. However, their own defence looks less convincing: they conceded an average of 2.6 goals over the same period, while Chełmianka scored 1.2. Although both teams scored in 100% and 40% of the teams’ respective last 5 matches, Chełmianka’s run of away clean sheets points to a scenario in which at least one team fails to score.

The strongest signal points to Under 3.5 goals: none of Hetman’s home matches or Chełmianka’s away matches to date have produced 4 or more goals. The visitors concede an average of 0.0 goals away from home and have kept a clean sheet in 100% of those matches, limiting the hosts’ scoring potential. On the other hand, Hetman have averaged 2.2 goals scored and 2.6 conceded over their last 5 matches, so their recent form calls for caution. However, Chełmianka have conceded just 0.4 goals per match over the same period, and only 20% of their matches have gone over the 2.5-goal line. An estimated total of 2.5 goals therefore gives Under 3.5 goals a clearer edge than the lower lines.

The strongest scenario is Chełmianka leading at the break and going on to win: they led at half-time in 3 of 4 away matches, scoring an average of 1.5 goals before the break. Hetman were level at half-time in both recorded home matches and failed to score in either first half, strengthening the visitors’ advantage at this stage. Chełmianka’s ability to maintain their lead is supported by the fact that they won 80% of their away matches without conceding, although Hetman won just as often at home. Across their last five matches overall, the visitors collected 11 points compared with 7 for the hosts, while Hetman conceded an average of 2.6 goals, against 0.4 for Chełmianka. A draw at half-time followed by an away win remains an alternative, as Chełmianka were level at the break in 3 of their last 4 matches; therefore, the case for 2/2 is not particularly strong.