KS Hetman Zamosc vs Czarni Połaniec: match statistics

Czarni Połaniec have won 67% of their away matches, while KS Hetman Zamość have won 33% of their home games, which points to the visitors. Czarni also pose a greater attacking threat, averaging 5.5 shots on target per away match compared with Hetman’s 3 at home. However, the hosts are more clinical on home soil, scoring an average of 1.83 goals, compared with the visitors’ 1.5 goals per away match. Czarni’s defence has been slightly stronger, conceding an average of 1.17 goals away from home, while Hetman have conceded 1.33 at home. Both teams have won 2 of their last 5 matches, and 50% of Hetman’s home games have ended in a draw, so the visitors’ advantage is not decisive.

In their last five matches, both teams scored in 100% of Hetman's games and 80% of Czarni's, a stronger signal than their season figures of 60% and 50%, respectively. Hetman averaged 2.2 goals scored and 2.2 conceded during this period, while Czarni scored 1.8 and conceded 1.6 goals per game. Season averages also point to goals at both ends: the home side scores 1.8 goals and the visitors 1.5, while conceding 1.8 and 1.17, respectively. One factor tempering the BTTS - Yes pick is that Czarni have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; however, their recent results and both teams' attacking efficiency support a scenario in which each side scores at least once.

Hetman matches averaged 3.6 goals, while Czarni matches averaged 2.67; across their last five appearances, the averages rose to 4.4 and 3.4, respectively. At least two goals were scored in 100% of Hetman matches and 67% of Czarni matches, making Over 1.5 goals a stronger signal than the 2.5 line, which was surpassed in 60% and 33% of matches, respectively. Recent scoring form also points to goals: Hetman averaged 2.2 goals in five matches, while Czarni averaged 1.8, conceding 2.2 and 1.6, respectively. I estimate 3.3 goals in total, but the gap between the rates of surpassing the 1.5 and 2.5 lines leads me to select Over 1.5 goals.

A half-time draw is the most likely outcome: Czarni were level at the break in 4 of their 6 matches and conceded an average of 0 goals in the first half. Their average of 0.33 goals scored before half-time also points to a cautious start, although Hetman were level at the break in only 1 of the 3 matches included in these statistics. After the break, the visitors could gain the upper hand: they average 2.17 points per match compared with the hosts’ 1.40, and have won 67% of their matches, against Hetman’s 40%. In recent matches, Hetman conceded an average of 1.5 goals after half-time, while Czarni scored 1.2 goals in that period, supporting a scenario in which the visitors win the match. However, the X/2 HT/FT pick is not a strong one, as the hosts scored an average of 2.2 goals across their last five matches, while the visitors conceded 1.6.