KS Hetman Zamosc vs Moravia Morawica: match statistics

KS Hetman Zamość have a positive home goal difference of +2, scoring an average of 1.33 goals and conceding just 0.67, which gives them a slight edge over Moravia. The visitors average 1.00 goal away from home and failed to score in 50% of such matches, while the hosts drew a blank in 33% of their home fixtures. Moravia have kept a clean sheet in 50% of away games and concede only 0.50 goals per match on the road, but their average xG against stands at 1.35 compared with an attacking xG of 1.12, suggesting vulnerability under sustained pressure. Across the season, Hetman have the more favourable 9:9 record, whereas Moravia have lost 4 of 6 matches and conceded 12 goals while scoring just 6. The last five fixtures do not indicate a clear form advantage, with the hosts averaging 1 point per match and the visitors 1.2, so a narrow Hetman victory is the most likely outcome.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, as Moravia Morawica had both teams scoring in 0% of their matches this season, while KS Hetman Zamość recorded this outcome in only 25%. The visitors kept a clean sheet in 50% of their matches and conceded just 0.5 goals on average, whereas the hosts failed to score in 75% of their appearances. Hetman does have better current attacking output, averaging 1.6 goals with an xG of 1.97 over their last five matches, but Moravia allowed opponents to score an average of just 1.0 goal this season. Recent form increases the likelihood of both teams scoring, with BTTS recorded in 60% and 20% of their respective last five matches, but this still falls clearly below the league average of 52%. The most likely scenario is therefore that at least one team—particularly the hosts against the visitors’ solid defence—fails to score.

The strongest selection is Over 1.5 goals, as Hetman exceeded this line in 100% of their matches, compared with 50% for Moravia. The last five matches involving both teams produced an average of 3.2 goals, with Hetman scoring 1.6 goals per match and Moravia conceding as many as 2.0. During this period, the hosts generated a high 1.97 xG, while Moravia’s average xG against them stands at 1.76, supporting a scenario with at least two goals. Caution with higher lines is warranted due to the visitors’ defensive record: they concede only 0.5 goals per match over the season and keep a clean sheet in 50% of their games. The projected total of 2.70 goals gives a clear edge to Over 1.5, but only a slight advantage for Over 2.5.

Moravia have a clearly stronger defense, conceding an average of 0.5 goals per match compared with Hetman’s 2.75, while the visitors have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games. The away side’s advantage is particularly evident before half-time, as they have not conceded a goal in any of their matches so far and led at the break in 50% of them, whereas the hosts were trailing at half-time in 75%. Hetman score only 1.0 goal per home match and have failed to score in the first half in each of their last five games. Although the hosts have a higher own xG, 1.35 compared with 1.12, their xG conceded stands at 1.79, confirming their defensive problems. The most likely scenario is therefore for Moravia to take the lead at the break and hold on to it until full-time.