KS Hetman Zamosc vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg: match statistics

Statistics from the last five matches favor Siarka Tarnobrzeg: the visitors scored 8 goals in five fixtures (avg. 1.6 per match) and conceded 13 (2.6 per match), while Hetman Zamość scored 5 goals (1.0 per match) and conceded as many as 21 (4.2 per match). Hetman has lost all of their last 5 matches (5 defeats), whereas Siarka in that period has 1 draw and 4 defeats, translating to 0 points per match for Hetman and 0.2 points per match for Siarka. The visitors’ main advantage is defense — Siarka concedes on average 1.6 fewer goals per match than Hetman (2.6 vs 4.2), which significantly reduces the risk of a heavy defeat. The provided dataset lacks reliable values for shots and xG (values set to 0), so assessment of chance creation quality is limited and we rely primarily on goal differential. Considering the superior goal balance (8–5) and Siarka’s marginally better point form, I forecast a visitors’ victory.

In the last 5 matches BTTS was 60% for KS Hetman Zamosc and 80% for Siarka Tarnobrzeg, averaging 70% for the both-teams-to-score scenario. Hetman scored 5 goals in those 5 matches (1.0 per game) and conceded as many as 21 goals (4.2 per game), while Siarka scored 8 goals (1.6 per game) and conceded 13 (2.6 per game). Additionally, xG shows a large disparity: Hetman has 0.12 xG_for and 1.58 xG_against, and Siarka 1.31 xG_for and 1.92 xG_against, meaning Siarka generates significantly more expected chances (1.31 vs 0.12) while both teams allow roughly 1.6–1.9 xG to opponents. Home form for Hetman is five straight defeats (lllll) whereas Siarka has 1 draw and 4 defeats (ldlll); combined with Hetman’s 21 goals conceded this increases the likelihood that at least one side will score, and most likely both. Based on this I tip BTTS - Yes at 75% and No at 25%, because the high BTTS rates 60%/80%, very large average goals conceded (4.2 and 2.6) and the xG disparity point toward goals at both ends.

Analysis of the last 5 matches indicates a high goal potential: Hetman averaged 1.0 goals scored and conceded 4.2 per match in the last 5, while Siarka averaged 1.6 scored and conceded 2.6. The defensive gap is significant — Hetman concedes 1.6 more goals than Siarka (4.2 vs 2.6), and additionally Hetman’s last 5 matches all finished Over 2.5 goals (100%) with BTTS occurring for the two teams in 60% and 80% of matches respectively. Considering xG: 0.12 for Hetman and 1.31 for Siarka and xG against 1.58 and 1.92, I applied a weighted approach (65% xG, 35% actual averages), yielding expected goals of 1.29 for Hetman and 1.95 for Siarka, total 3.24. With that expected λ=3.24, a Poisson distribution estimates roughly an 83% chance of Over 1.5 goals, 63% for Over 2.5 and 41% for Over 3.5, therefore the best and strongest line to play is Over 2.5.

Hetman Zamość is in very poor form — five consecutive defeats (100% losses in the last five matches) and was trailing at half-time in all of those fixtures (100% of cases), conceding an average of 4.2 goals per match and 2.5 goals by half-time. Siarka Tarnobrzeg averages 1.6 goals per match versus Hetman’s 1.0 and 1.4 by half-time; in the last five matches Siarka led at the break in 40% and were level at half-time in 60% of cases. The numbers indicate an advantage for the visitors: Siarka scored 12 first-half goals in the last five matches compared to Hetman’s 5, which, together with Hetman’s high average goals conceded (4.2 per match), suggests the visitors will hold a lead at the break. Therefore the strongest and most consistent signal from the data is the scenario “Siarka leads at half-time and wins Full-Time” (2/2), with a smaller but realistic chance of a draw at half-time followed by a turnaround.