KTS Weszło vs Jagiellonia II: match statistics

KTS Weszło enter this match on the back of a five-game winning streak, while Jagiellonia II have won twice and drawn three times in their last five fixtures. At home, the hosts average 3.5 goals per match from 6.5 shots on target, whereas the visitors average 2.5 goals and 4.5 shots on target away from home. KTS’s advantage is also evident in the quality of chances created: their average xG stands at 1.59 compared with Jagiellonia II’s 1.19, while KTS Weszło’s opponents are limited to an xG of 1.83, lower than the 2.29 recorded by the visitors’ opponents. Jagiellonia II concede an average of 2 goals away from home, while KTS Weszło concede just 1, and with the hosts having a 100% home win record, the data points towards a KTS victory. Neither team has yet failed to score, making an open game likely, although KTS Weszło should create the greater number of chances.

The signal for both teams to score is strong, as KTS Weszło and Jagiellonia II have recorded BTTS in 100% of their matches so far this season, compared with the league average of 67%. Neither team has kept a clean sheet yet, while the hosts concede an average of 1.0 goal and the visitors 2.0. KTS Weszło generate an average of 1.98 xG, while Jagiellonia II’s defence allows opponents 2.29 xG, clearly supporting the case for a home goal. Meanwhile, Jagiellonia’s reserves score an average of 2.5 goals per match, and their BTTS rate in the last five games was 100%; during this period, the hosts recorded 1.73 xG against them. KTS Weszło’s form has improved their defensive record to 0.6 goals conceded across five matches, but the visitors’ attacking consistency and the lack of clean sheets on both sides still make the BTTS scenario more likely.

Both teams have gone over 1.5 goals in every league match played so far, and neither has kept a clean sheet. In their last five matches, KTS Weszło averaged 2.4 goals, while Jagiellonia II averaged 1.8, with the visitors conceding 1.4 goals per game. The hosts’ attacking potential is supported by an average xG of 1.98 and 16.0 shots per match, while Jagiellonia II’s defence allows opponents an xG of 2.29. In the 3. Liga, the average is 3.33 goals per match, and 67% of games finish with at least three goals. The strongest signal remains Over 1.5 goals, as both teams’ data consistently points to a minimum of two goals, although the Over 2.5 and Over 3.5 lines are more exposed to variance.

KTS Weszło are in excellent form, having won their last five matches while scoring an average of 2.4 goals and conceding just 0.6. By contrast, Jagiellonia II have won 40% of their matches over this period and drawn as many as 60%. The hosts have a clear edge in chance creation, with an average xG of 1.98 compared with 1.19 for the visitors, while their opponents allow an average of 2.29 xG. In the first halves, KTS held a lead at the break in 50% of their recent matches. Although Jagiellonia II led at half-time in 40% of their games, they have been less effective after the interval, conceding an average of 1.2 goals in the second half. The most likely scenario is therefore that the in-form hosts will build a lead before half-time and hold on to it until the final whistle: HT/FT 1/1.