KuPS vs HJK: match statistics
KuPS vs HJK: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
KuPS played HJK in Veikkausliiga (Finland). The match was played on 26 April 2026. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
KuPS: 3-1-0, 2.50 points/match. HJK: 2-0-1, 2.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
KuPS scores 2.00 and concedes 1.00 goals per match. HJK scores 2.00 and concedes 0.33. League average: 2.46 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: KuPS 75%, HJK 0%. Over 2.5: KuPS 50%, HJK 67%. League level: BTTS 50%, Over 2.5 46%.
xG, shots and style
KuPS has higher xG: 1.84 vs 1.62. KuPS: 14.5 shots per match, HJK: 13.3.
Match halves
KuPS: half-time lead 25%, second-half goals 1.25. HJK: half-time lead 67%, second-half goals 1.33.
Goals by minute
KuPS: 76-90+ (3 goals). HJK: 31-45+ (2 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Veikkausliiga: 2.46 goals per match, BTTS 50%, Over 2.5 46%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 4 previous H2H matches were available: 3-1-0. Average goals 2.25, BTTS 25%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I predict a home win for KuPS. KuPS has 8 goals this season and is creating significantly more attacking opportunities: averaging 19 shots and 8 on target at home versus HJK’s 9 shots and 5 on target away (HJK 6 goals this season). KuPS posts higher expected goals: xG 2.26 vs 1.39 for HJK, indicating superior chance quality, while HJK’s reported average of 3 goals away with a 33% conversion may be a short-term anomaly. Defensively KuPS concedes on average 1 goal at home with xG against 1.16 and keeps a clean sheet in 50% of matches, whereas HJK records 0 goals conceded on the road and 100% clean sheets, although HJK conceded 4 goals in the last 5 matches compared to KuPS’s 9 conceded in the same period. Considering KuPS’s 64% possession, 2.0 points per game for KuPS over the last 5 matches vs 1.8 for HJK, and the advantage in xG and shot volume, I favor KuPS to win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I assess the “No” (No Goal / clean sheet expected) scenario as more likely because HJK averages 3.0 goals scored per season while conceding 0.0, maintaining 100.0% clean sheets, which significantly reduces the probability of BTTS - Yes. Season BTTS rates for both clubs are 0.0% (KuPS 0.0%, HJK 0.0%) versus a league BTTS average of 50.0%, so individual profiles favor no mutual scoring. A counterargument is KuPS form — in the last 5 matches KuPS has BTTS 60.0%, scored 8 and conceded 9 (avg 1.6 for, 1.8 against), showing they can concede. Still, HJK is highly efficient and defensively stable: a conversion rate of 33.0% with an average of 9.0 shots and xG_for 1.39 vs xG_against 0.76 suggests HJK will likely score while their defense limits opponents’ chances. Considering HJK’s 100.0% clean sheets, season 0.0% BTTS for both teams and relatively low HJK xG_against, I rate “No” as the stronger signal (75% vs 25%).
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
An xG-based model projects 1.25 goals for KuPS (attacking xG 1.74 vs HJK defensive xG 0.76) and 1.25 for HJK (attacking xG 1.39 vs KuPS defense 1.11), totaling 2.50 expected goals. A Poisson distribution with λ=2.50 yields ~71% probability for Over 1.5 goals (P(0 or 1) ≈ 28.7%), ~46% for Over 2.5 and ~24% for Over 3.5. Additionally, HJK has a seasonal away average of 3.0 goals and a shot conversion rate of 33% versus KuPS’s 10%, and in the last 5 matches Over 2.5 rates are ~60% for KuPS and 80% for HJK, which supports at least two goals. KuPS generates significantly more shots (15.5 vs 9.0) and has 50% clean sheets at home, which limits the likelihood of a very high scoreline above 3.5 (~24%), therefore the strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Statistics clearly favor HJK: the away team averages 3.0 goals per away match with 0.0 conceded, has a 100% away-win rate and led at the break in 100% of their games, which suggests a strong advantage already after 45 minutes. KuPS at home averages 1.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded, led at the break in 50% of matches, and despite a higher xG (1.74 versus 1.39) has lower shot conversion (10% vs 33%), so the xG advantage does not translate into goals. In second halves HJK records on average 2.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded, which increases the likelihood of maintaining or extending a lead. Based on this I rate the HT/FT 2/2 outcome as most likely. I assign it a 51% probability; alternatives are X/2 (9%) and 1/2 (10%), and I assess remaining scenarios collectively at about 30%.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| KuPS | HJK | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 47% | 35% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.30 | 0.43 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
KuPS is 25% better for: last-5 form.
2.5 pts / match - KuPS · 2 pts / match - HJK
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
HJK is 203% better for: goals conceded per match.
1 goals / match - KuPS · 0.33 goals / match - HJK
KuPS scores in 100% of matches (4 of 4 matches), while HJK keeps a clean sheet in 67% (2 of 3 matches).
HJK scores in 67% of matches (2 of 3 matches), while KuPS keeps a clean sheet in 25% (1 of 4 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - KuPS
Over / Under - HJK
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
HJK is 60% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.25 pts / match - KuPS · 2 pts / match - HJK
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
KuPS - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 25% of matches and wins 75%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
HJK - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 67% of matches and wins 67%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.25 | 2.50 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Average goals in match | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 75% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 50% | 50% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 25% |
| Clean sheet | 50% | 50% |
| No goal | 50% | 0% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 2.33 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.7 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 67% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 67% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 67% | 100% |
| No goal | 33% | 33% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +4 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (3 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (2 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (1). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
KuPS
HJK
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Veikkausliiga).
Teams vs league
| KuPS | Liga | HJK | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.00 | 2.46 | ▼ 2.33 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 75% | 50% | ▼ 0% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 50% | 46% | ▲ 67% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 25% | 29% | ▲ 67% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 75% | 71% | ▲ 100% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 100% | 83% | ▼ 67% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (4): KuPS 3 - 1 - 0 HJK. Average goals 2.25, both teams scored in 25% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of KuPS vs HJK?
The Veikkausliiga match finished KuPS 1:1 HJK. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and HJK?
In the last 4 head-to-head matches KuPS won 3, HJK won 0 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 2.25 goals, with both teams scoring in 25% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before KuPS vs HJK?
KuPS score 2.00 goals per game on average and HJK 2.00. The Veikkausliiga average is 2.46 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 46% of games. Both teams score in 75% of KuPS's matches and 0% of HJK's.
What form are KuPS and HJK in?
Over the last 5 games KuPS have a 3-1-0 record (2.50 points per game) and HJK 2-0-1 (2.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for KuPS vs HJK?
The statistical background for KuPS vs HJK — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.