Kuressaare vs Paide: match statistics
Kuressaare vs Paide: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Kuressaare played Paide in Meistriliiga (Estonia). The match was played on 3 April 2026. Final score: 0:1.
Current form
Kuressaare: 1-0-2, 1.00 points/match. Paide: 1-1-1, 1.33 points/match.
Goal statistics
Kuressaare scores 1.00 and concedes 2.67 goals per match. Paide scores 1.67 and concedes 1.67. League average: 3.40 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Kuressaare 33%, Paide 67%. Over 2.5: Kuressaare 67%, Paide 67%. League level: BTTS 53%, Over 2.5 67%.
xG, shots and style
Paide has higher xG: 1.54 vs 1.30. Kuressaare: 9.7 shots per match, Paide: 11.7.
Match halves
Kuressaare: half-time lead 0%, second-half goals 0.67. Paide: half-time lead 0%, second-half goals 1.33.
Goals by minute
Kuressaare: 31-45+ (1 goals). Paide: 46-60 (2 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Meistriliiga: 3.40 goals per match, BTTS 53%, Over 2.5 67%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 4 previous H2H matches were available: 0-2-2. Average goals 3.25, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Kuressaare holds a clear home advantage: 100% wins at home, averaging 3.0 goals per match, 13 shots and 6 on target with a conversion rate of 23%. Paide, despite sitting 4th and scoring 12 goals in the last 5 matches, has failed to win on the road (win percentage 0), concedes on average 2.5 goals away and has a negative away goal differential (-1). Quality of chances is highlighted by xG values — Kuressaare at home has xG 1.60 versus xG against 1.28 (difference +0.32), while Paide away has xG 1.53 versus xG against 1.38 (difference +0.15). In the last five fixtures the hosts have won 3 of 5 and average 1.8 points per match, the visitors have 2 wins and 1.4 points per match, although Paide scored twice as many goals in that period (12 vs 6). Considering Kuressaare’s higher efficiency (conversion 23% vs 19%), greater number of attempts (13 vs 10.5) and superior home xG balance, I forecast a Kuressaare win, while expecting an open, high-scoring game (average total goals: hosts 5.0 and visitors 4.5).
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I predict BTTS - Yes (65% vs 35%) — both teams generate comparable xG: Kuressaare xG_for 1.57 and Paide 1.53, indicating both sides create genuine scoring chances. Paide is particularly dangerous offensively: averaging 5.5 shots on target, a 19% conversion rate and 2.4 goals per match over the last 5; additionally their seasonal BTTS_away is 100% and last5 BTTS 60%, so the visitors score regularly. Kuressaare has a seasonal 100% clean sheets at home and seasonal BTTS 0% (a strong counterargument to BTTS), but in the last 5 matches the hosts conceded an average of 1.6 goals and their last5 BTTS is 20%, showing some vulnerability to conceding. Moreover, league-wide BTTS occurs in 53% of matches and the average goals per match is 3.4, so with xG 1.57 vs 1.53 and the difference in conversion rates (Kuressaare conversion 7% vs Paide 19%) the stronger signal is both teams to score — I back 'Yes'.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Based on xG I calculated Kuressaare’s expected goals as (1.57 + 1.38)/2 = 1.48 and Paide’s as (1.53 + 0.62)/2 = 1.08, giving a total of 2.56 xG. That implies a result clearly above the 1.5 line and marginally above 2.5 (by 0.06); additionally the league averages 3.4 goals per match and 67% of fixtures finish Over 2.5, which supports the over scenario. Paide produces 5.5 shots on target versus Kuressaare’s 2.0 and has a 19% shot conversion versus the home side’s 7%, so the visitors hold the advantage in quality of chances. Kuressaare fires many shots (14.0) but only 2.0 are on target and they have a low conversion rate, which reduces the likelihood of a very high-scoring game over 3.5 (estimated Over 3.5 ≈ 30%). As a result the strongest and most reliable signal is a play on Over 1.5 (high, ~92% probability), while Over 2.5 also has an edge (≈66%).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Kuressaare at home displays very specific patterns: they have a 100.0% home win rate (winPercentage_home = 100.0), 100.0% draws at Half-Time (drawingAtHTPercentage_home = 100.0) and an average of 0.0 goals before the break (scoredAVGHT_home = 0.0), indicating the most common half-time score is 0–0. After the break the hosts score on average 1.0 goal (scored_2hg_avg_home = 1.0) and concede no goals in second halves (conceded_2hg_avg_home = 0.0, cs_2hg_percentage_home = 100.0), while Paide concedes on average 2.0 goals after the break (conceded_2hg_avg_away = 2.0) and has no second-half clean sheets (cs_2hg_percentage_away = 0.0). The defensive gap is confirmed by xG: Kuressaare allows opponents an xG of 0.62 (xg_against_avg_home = 0.62) versus 1.38 for Paide (xg_against_avg_away = 1.38), and the hosts, despite fewer shots on target (2.0 vs 5.5), control the second half better. Given that the hosts average 1.0 goal per home match on the season (seasonScoredAVG_home = 1.0) and keep 100.0% clean sheets at home (seasonCSPercentage_home = 100.0), the most likely scenario is a draw at Half-Time and a Kuressaare victory after 90 minutes. I estimate the probability of X/1 at 78%, full-time draw X/X at 16%, and all other variants combined at 6% as unlikely.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Kuressaare | Paide | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 41% | 37% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.25 | 0.39 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Paide is 33% better for: last-5 form.
1 pts / match - Kuressaare · 1.33 pts / match - Paide
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Paide is 67% better for: goals scored per match.
1 goals / match - Kuressaare · 1.67 goals / match - Paide
Paide is 60% better for: goals conceded per match.
2.67 goals / match - Kuressaare · 1.67 goals / match - Paide
Kuressaare scores in 33% of matches (1 of 3 matches), while Paide keeps a clean sheet in 33% (1 of 3 matches).
Paide scores in 100% of matches (3 of 3 matches), while Kuressaare keeps a clean sheet in 0% (0 of 3 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Kuressaare
Over / Under - Paide
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Kuressaare - second-half results
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Paide - second-half results
Concedes 1.0 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.3 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 2.0 | 1.7 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 67% | 67% |
| 3 goals | 33% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 0% | 33% |
| No goal | 67% | 67% |
| Goal difference | -4 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.3 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.3 | 1.3 |
| Average goals in match | 0.7 | 2.7 |
| 1 goal | 33% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 33% | 67% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 33% |
| Clean sheet | 67% | 33% |
| No goal | 67% | 0% |
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (1 goal). Concedes most in 31-45 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (2 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Kuressaare
Paide
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Meistriliiga).
Teams vs league
| Kuressaare | Liga | Paide | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.67 | 3.40 | • 3.33 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 33% | 53% | ▲ 67% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 67% | 67% | • 67% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 0% | 23% | ▲ 33% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 100% | 80% | ▼ 33% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 100% | 87% | ▲ 100% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (4): Kuressaare 0 - 2 - 2 Paide. Average goals 3.25, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Kuressaare vs Paide?
The Meistriliiga match finished Kuressaare 0:1 Paide. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Kuressaare and Paide?
In the last 4 head-to-head matches Kuressaare won 0, Paide won 2 and 2 ended level. These games averaged 3.25 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Kuressaare vs Paide?
Kuressaare score 1.00 goals per game on average and Paide 1.67. The Meistriliiga average is 3.40 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 67% of games. Both teams score in 33% of Kuressaare's matches and 67% of Paide's.
What form are Kuressaare and Paide in?
Over the last 5 games Kuressaare have a 1-0-2 record (1.00 points per game) and Paide 1-1-1 (1.33 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Kuressaare vs Paide?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Kuressaare vs Paide: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.