Kuressaare vs Tallinna FC Levadia: match statistics

Tallinna FC Levadia is the favorite based on the table and form — they sit 1st with 6 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats, while Kuressaare are 8th with 3 wins and 6 losses. In the last 5 matches Levadia scored 16 goals and have 4 wins and 1 draw (2.6 points per game), whereas Kuressaare have 7 goals with 2 wins and 3 losses (1.2 points per game). Away, Levadia averages 19.67 shots with 6.67 on target and an average xG of 2.36, while Kuressaare at home record 12.25 shots, 5.5 on target and xG 1.58, indicating an advantage for the visitors in chance creation. Defensively Levadia concede 1.0 goal per away match with an opposing xG of 0.96 and have a 0% away loss rate, whereas Kuressaare concede 1.5 goals in home games with opposing xG 1.61, have no clean sheets at home (CS% 0) and failed to score in 50% of home fixtures (FTS 50%). Considering the superiority in possession (61% vs 44%), average goals (2.0 away for Levadia vs 1.5 home for Kuressaare) and the clear differences in xG and shot volume, I assign 70% probability to a Levadia win, 20% to a draw and 10% to a home upset.

In my forecast I pick "BTTS - Yes" with an 80% probability versus 20% for "No". The strongest signal is Tallinna FC Levadia, who have a seasonal BTTS rate of 100% and 0% clean sheets away, meaning in every away match this season they have both scored and conceded. Kuressaare have BTTS in 80% of their last 5 matches and average 1.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game (7 scored and 8 conceded in 5 matches), so recent form also favors goals from both sides. xG and shot metrics tell the same story: Levadia generate on average 2.36 xG versus 1.97 xG for Kuressaare, and shots on target are about 6.67 vs 6.17, which confirms genuine chances for both teams. Additionally, the league has 56% BTTS matches and an average of 3.33 goals per game, and Levadia’s superior scoring (24 goals in the season vs 10 for Kuressaare) further increases the likelihood that both teams will find the net.

I assess that the match will produce over 3 goals: expected goals are 1.39 for Kuressaare and 1.84 for Tallinna FC Levadia, total 3.23. Both teams have 100% of matches with over 1.5 goals this season, and over 2.5 occurred in 67% of their fixtures this season and in 80% of the last 5 matches, which strongly supports the Over 2.5 market. I calculated xG forecasts using two methods: the seasonal method gives ~1.47 for the home side (1.97 xG for Kuressaare vs 0.96 xG conceded by Levadia) and ~1.67 for the away side (2.36 xG Levadia vs 0.97 xG conceded by the hosts), while the last-5-matches method gives ~1.31 and ~2.02; averaging these yields 1.39 and 1.84. Additionally, Kuressaare has a high conversion rate of 19% with an average of 16.17 shots (6.17 on target), and Levadia averages 19.67 shots with 6.67 on target at a 10% conversion; Levadia scored 16 goals in the last 5 matches, Kuressaare 7, confirming the visitors’ attacking edge. On this basis I recommend the Over side at the 2.5 line as the strongest signal (ou_pred_over_25=78), while Over 1.5 is almost certain (ou_pred_over_15=98), and Over 3.5 remains moderately likely (ou_pred_over_35=44).

Kuressaare led at half-time in 4 of their league matches to date (67%) and average 1.5 first-half goals versus 0.67 for Tallinna FC Levadia, which favors them on HT. At the same time Levadia have a higher xG — 2.36 versus the hosts’ 1.97 — and strong form: 4 wins in their last 5 matches (80%), which increases their chances of a turnaround after the break. In the second half the visitors show a positive goal balance of +5 in their last 5 post-break performances and average 1.6 goals scored after half-time, raising the probability they will recover the deficit. Considering also the hosts’ high percentage of clean sheets at half-time (83%) and Kuressaare’s higher shot conversion rate of 19% versus 10% for the visitors, the most likely scenario is Kuressaare leading at the break and Levadia winning the match (HT/FT 1/2).