KV Kortrijk vs Sporting Charleroi: match statistics

Sporting Charleroi opened the season with 3 wins from 3 matches, scoring 6 goals and conceding just 1, while KV Kortrijk lost both of their games with a 0:6 goal difference. In their only home match so far, the hosts failed to score, conceded an average of 3 goals and allowed their opponents an xG of 2.03. Charleroi won their away fixture without conceding, recording an average xG of 2.38 compared with just 0.77 conceded at their own end. The visitors also create significantly more danger, averaging 23 shots and 5 on target, compared with Kortrijk’s 15 shots and 2 on target. The last five matches also favour Charleroi, who scored 10 goals and averaged 2 points per game, compared with Kortrijk’s 4 goals and 0.8 points.

Sporting Charleroi have strong attacking arguments: they have averaged 2.0 goals in their last 5 matches, with an xG of 2.08, while Kortrijk have conceded 2.2 goals per game. However, the key uncertainty for BTTS is the hosts’ finishing, as they scored just 0.8 goals per match over the same run and recorded BTTS in 40% of their games. Charleroi have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their league matches so far, with an average xG conceded of just 0.77, which strengthens the scenario of Kortrijk failing to score. Although the hosts create a relatively high volume of chances, averaging 1.49 xG in their last five appearances, the visitors’ defensive advantage and their strong form following a run of three consecutive wins point slightly towards BTTS - No.

The strongest signal is Over 1.5 goals, as Kortrijk conceded an average of 2.2 goals in their last five matches, while Charleroi scored an average of 2.0 goals. The visitors are also creating high-quality chances, with an average xG of 2.08 across their last five games, while the xG against Kortrijk stands at 1.62. Kortrijk are in poorer form, having suffered three consecutive defeats and recording 4 goals scored and 11 conceded in their last five matches. As many as 80% of the hosts’ recent games and 60% of Charleroi’s matches went Over 2.5 goals, which also supports the higher total-goals projection of 2.85. However, the 1.5 line offers a clearly greater safety margin than Over 2.5, especially since Charleroi have yet to concede a goal in the available away data.

The strongest signal points to a draw at half-time and a Sporting Charleroi win after 90 minutes: the visitors were level at the break in 3 of their last 5 matches and went on to win the second half in 60% of those games. Current form clearly favours Charleroi, who collected 10 points over five league rounds and scored an average of 2.0 goals, while Kortrijk earned 4 points, averaged 0.8 goals scored and conceded 2.2 per match. After the break, the hosts scored just 0.2 goals per game across their last five appearances, while allowing opponents 1.4 goals; Charleroi averaged 1.4 goals in this phase of play. Although Kortrijk do hold an advantage in the data from a very small home sample, the visitors’ higher xG of 2.38 compared with 2.08, along with 23 shots per match, supports a scenario in which an even opening develops into an away advantage.