KV Kortrijk vs Zulte-Waregem: match statistics

Zulte-Waregem sit 4th and remain unbeaten after 4 league matches (2 wins and 2 draws), while KV Kortrijk are bottom, having suffered three defeats in three games. The visitors have scored 8 goals and conceded just 3, compared with 1 scored and 9 conceded by the hosts, clearly highlighting the disparity at both ends of the pitch. In their last five appearances, Zulte-Waregem have collected 11 points and scored 10 goals, whereas Kortrijk have managed just one point, with a 2:13 goal difference. The hosts’ defence concedes an average of 3 goals per home game and have yet to keep a clean sheet, while Zulte-Waregem allow opponents an xG of 1.48 compared with Kortrijk’s 1.92. The draw risk is increased by the fact that both of the visitors’ away games so far have ended level, but their more consistent form and significantly greater attacking efficiency point towards a Zulte-Waregem win.

The BTTS signal is primarily weakened by Kortrijk’s very poor attacking form in their last five matches: the team has scored just 2 goals, averaging 0.4 per game, while BTTS occurred in 40% of those matches. Over the same period, Zulte-Waregem has conceded only 0.8 goals per match and kept a clean sheet in 50% of their season games, increasing the likelihood that the hosts will fail to score again. The visitors, meanwhile, are in good scoring form, averaging 2.0 goals across their last five appearances, while Kortrijk conceded as many as 2.6 goals per game. Although Kortrijk’s xG from their last five matches stands at 1.25 and Zulte-Waregem allows an average of 1.34 xG, the visitors’ advantage and the hosts’ poor finishing slightly support the BTTS - No scenario, meaning that at least one team will fail to score.

The strongest signal is for Over 1.5 goals, as the 2.5-goal line has been exceeded in 80% of the last five matches involving both teams. Kortrijk are in very poor defensive form: they have conceded an average of 2.6 goals per game in their last five appearances, while their xG against stands at 1.78. Zulte-Waregem have averaged 2.0 goals scored during this period, with an xG of 1.55, whereas Kortrijk have managed just 0.4 goals per match. However, the visitors have defended relatively effectively, conceding 0.8 goals per game in their last five matches, which is why a larger share of the projected 2.95 goals is expected to come from their side. Even with a limited contribution from the hosts, Zulte-Waregem’s attacking output and Kortrijk’s defensive problems strongly support at least two goals in the match.

The strongest signal points to Zulte-Waregem leading at half-time and maintaining their advantage until the final whistle, as Kortrijk have averaged just 0.4 goals scored and as many as 2.6 conceded over their last five matches. Over the same period, the visitors scored 2.0 goals per game on average while allowing opponents just 0.8, recording three wins and two draws. Kortrijk were behind at the break in 60% of their last five appearances and averaged 0.4 goals scored, whereas Zulte-Waregem led at half-time in 40% and averaged 1.0 goal. After the interval, the hosts averaged no goals scored across their last five matches, while the visitors averaged 1.0 goal and conceded only 0.2, clearly strengthening the 2/2 HT/FT scenario.