Kwara United vs Ranchers Bees: match statistics
Kwara United vs Ranchers Bees: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Kwara United played Ranchers Bees in NPFL (Nigeria). The match was played on 4 October 2026. Venue: Ilorin Township Stadium. Final score: 3:1.
Current form
Kwara United: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match. Ranchers Bees: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Kwara United scores 1.17 and concedes 1.00 goals per match. Ranchers Bees scores 1.33 and concedes 1.33. League average: 2.40 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Kwara United 33%, Ranchers Bees 50%. Over 2.5: Kwara United 50%, Ranchers Bees 67%. League level: BTTS 45%, Over 2.5 42%.
xG, shots and style
Ranchers Bees has higher xG: 1.13 vs 0.57. Kwara United: -0.2 shots per match, Ranchers Bees: 4.7.
Match halves
Kwara United: half-time lead 17%, second-half goals 0.83. Ranchers Bees: half-time lead 17%, second-half goals 0.83.
Goals by minute
Kwara United: 46-60 (2 goals). Ranchers Bees: 76-90+ (3 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
NPFL: 2.40 goals per match, BTTS 45%, Over 2.5 42%.
Head-to-head
No aligned head-to-head sample is available in the database.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Kwara United are favourites based on their home form: they have won 2 of their 3 home matches, while Ranchers Bees have lost all 3 of their away games. The hosts score an average of 2.33 goals per home match and concede 1, whereas the visitors score 0.67 goals and concede 2.33 on the road. The contrast is also reflected in their goal differences in these matches: +4 for Kwara compared with -5 for Ranchers Bees. In their last 5 matches overall, the visitors have scored 7 goals to the hosts’ 5, but their away xG is just 0.92, while they allow 1.83 xG at the other end. This gap between overall form and the visitors’ three consecutive away defeats points to a Kwara United win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The strongest indicator against both teams scoring is Kwara United’s defensive record: they concede an average of 0.33 goals at home and keep a clean sheet in 67% of matches. Ranchers Bees score an average of just 0.67 goals away from home, with an xG of 0.92 compared with 1.75 for the hosts. Kwara United score an average of 2.0 goals at home, while the visitors concede 2.33 away, making a home goal more likely than an away response. A counterpoint is that both teams scored in 67% of Ranchers Bees’ away matches; however, over their last five matches, the rate was 40% for the visitors and 20% for the hosts. Therefore, the more likely scenario is that at least one team fails to score (BTTS - No).
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The strongest signal is for Over 1.5 goals: both teams have gone over this line in 67% of their matches, while Kwara United average 2.0 goals at home and Ranchers Bees concede 2.33 goals away. The hosts generate an average of 1.75 xG, while the visitors allow opponents 1.83 xG, further supporting at least two goals. Higher lines are less reliable, as Kwara United keep a clean sheet in 67% of their home matches, and Ranchers Bees score just 0.67 goals per away game. Therefore, with a forecast of 2.60 goals, Over 1.5 is a stronger pick than Over 2.5 or Over 3.5 goals.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
A draw at half-time followed by a Kwara United win is the most likely outcome: the hosts were level at the break in 2 of their 3 home matches, while Ranchers Bees kept a clean sheet in 4 of the first halves across their last 5 matches. Although the visitors were trailing at half-time in 2 of their 3 away games, Kwara United have averaged only 0.67 goals before the break at home, making a home lead after 45 minutes a close alternative. The hosts should have a clearer edge after the break: they average 1.33 goals in second halves at home, exactly matching the number the visitors concede on the road. Across the full match, Kwara United average 2.00 goals at home, compared with Ranchers Bees’ 0.67 away, while their xG stands at 1.75 versus 0.92 for their opponents. The forecast should nevertheless be treated with caution, as the home and away statistics are based on just 3 matches each.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Kwara United | Ranchers Bees | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 0% | 36% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Ranchers Bees is 17% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - Kwara United · 1.4 pts / match - Ranchers Bees
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Ranchers Bees is 14% better for: goals scored per match.
1.17 goals / match - Kwara United · 1.33 goals / match - Ranchers Bees
Kwara United is 33% better for: goals conceded per match.
1 goals / match - Kwara United · 1.33 goals / match - Ranchers Bees
Kwara United scores in 50% of matches (3 of 6 matches), while Ranchers Bees keeps a clean sheet in 33% (2 of 6 matches).
Ranchers Bees scores in 67% of matches (4 of 6 matches), while Kwara United keeps a clean sheet in 17% (1 of 6 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Kwara United
Over / Under - Ranchers Bees
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Ranchers Bees is 20% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.83 pts / match - Kwara United · 1 pts / match - Ranchers Bees
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Kwara United - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 17% of matches and wins 33%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Ranchers Bees - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 17% of matches and wins 33%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 80% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (2 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (3 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Kwara United
Ranchers Bees
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (NPFL).
Teams vs league
| Kwara United | Liga | Ranchers Bees | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.17 | 2.40 | ▲ 2.67 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 33% | 45% | ▲ 50% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 50% | 42% | ▲ 67% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 17% | 33% | • 33% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 83% | 70% | ▼ 50% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 67% | 72% | ▲ 83% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
FAQ
What was the result of Kwara United vs Ranchers Bees?
The NPFL match finished Kwara United 3:1 Ranchers Bees. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Kwara United vs Ranchers Bees?
Kwara United score 1.17 goals per game on average and Ranchers Bees 1.33. The NPFL average is 2.40 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 42% of games. Both teams score in 33% of Kwara United's matches and 50% of Ranchers Bees's.
What form are Kwara United and Ranchers Bees in?
Over the last 5 games Kwara United have a 2-0-3 record (1.20 points per game) and Ranchers Bees 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Kwara United vs Ranchers Bees?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.