Kwara United vs Warri Wolves: match statistics
Kwara United displays impressive home form with a 60% win rate and only 20% losses at their own stadium, which provides a solid basis for predicting their success. The hosts have a positive home goal difference of +8, averaging 1.2 goals scored and conceding only 0.4 goals per match, with 60% clean sheets. Warri Wolves, on the other hand, performs significantly worse on the road with a 55% loss rate and only 36% wins, conceding an average of 1.09 goals with a negative goal difference of -3. Despite Kwara United's weaker overall recent form (1 win in their last 5 matches), their dominance at home and higher expected statistics xG (1.3 vs 1.19) speak in their favor. Warri Wolves, although in better overall recent form, struggles with away performances, making Kwara United the favorite for this match.
Kwara United vs Warri Wolves: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Kwara United played Warri Wolves in NPFL (Nigeria). The match was played on 1 February 2026. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
Kwara United: 1-0-4, 0.60 points/match. Warri Wolves: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Kwara United scores 0.77 and concedes 0.91 goals per match. Warri Wolves scores 0.96 and concedes 0.87. League average: 1.84 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Kwara United 27%, Warri Wolves 35%. Over 2.5: Kwara United 18%, Warri Wolves 22%. League level: BTTS 36%, Over 2.5 26%.
xG, shots and style
Warri Wolves has higher xG: 1.30 vs 1.01. Kwara United: 4.0 shots per match, Warri Wolves: 4.9.
Match halves
Kwara United: half-time lead 18%, second-half goals 0.36. Warri Wolves: half-time lead 17%, second-half goals 0.57.
Goals by minute
Kwara United: 31-45+ (6 goals). Warri Wolves: 46-60 (8 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
NPFL: 1.84 goals per match, BTTS 36%, Over 2.5 26%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-0. Average goals 0.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Kwara United displays impressive home form with a 60% win rate and only 20% losses at their own stadium, which provides a solid basis for predicting their success. The hosts have a positive home goal difference of +8, averaging 1.2 goals scored and conceding only 0.4 goals per match, with 60% clean sheets. Warri Wolves, on the other hand, performs significantly worse on the road with a 55% loss rate and only 36% wins, conceding an average of 1.09 goals with a negative goal difference of -3. Despite Kwara United's weaker overall recent form (1 win in their last 5 matches), their dominance at home and higher expected statistics xG (1.3 vs 1.19) speak in their favor. Warri Wolves, although in better overall recent form, struggles with away performances, making Kwara United the favorite for this match.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Kwara United | Warri Wolves | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 26% | 38% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.73 | 0.51 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Warri Wolves is 233% better for: last-5 form.
0.6 pts / match - Kwara United · 2 pts / match - Warri Wolves
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Warri Wolves is 25% better for: goals scored per match.
0.77 goals / match - Kwara United · 0.96 goals / match - Warri Wolves
Warri Wolves is 5% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.91 goals / match - Kwara United · 0.87 goals / match - Warri Wolves
Kwara United scores in 45% of matches (10 of 22 matches), while Warri Wolves keeps a clean sheet in 43% (10 of 23 matches).
Warri Wolves scores in 70% of matches (16 of 23 matches), while Kwara United keeps a clean sheet in 36% (8 of 22 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Kwara United
Over / Under - Warri Wolves
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Warri Wolves is 8% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.05 pts / match - Kwara United · 1.13 pts / match - Warri Wolves
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Kwara United - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 18% of matches and wins 27%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Warri Wolves - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 17% of matches and wins 39%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 80% |
| No goal | 100% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -4 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 2.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 2.2 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 100% | 0% |
| Goal difference | -3 | +5 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (6 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (8 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Kwara United
Warri Wolves
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (NPFL).
Teams vs league
| Kwara United | Liga | Warri Wolves | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 1.68 | 1.84 | • 1.83 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 27% | 36% | • 35% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 18% | 26% | ▼ 22% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 36% | 38% | ▲ 43% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 64% | 60% | • 61% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 45% | 59% | ▼ 57% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Kwara United 0 - 1 - 0 Warri Wolves. Average goals 0.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Kwara United vs Warri Wolves?
The NPFL match finished Kwara United 2:1 Warri Wolves. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Kwara United vs Warri Wolves?
Kwara United score 0.77 goals per game on average and Warri Wolves 0.96. The NPFL average is 1.84 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 26% of games. Both teams score in 27% of Kwara United's matches and 35% of Warri Wolves's.
What form are Kwara United and Warri Wolves in?
Over the last 5 games Kwara United have a 1-0-4 record (0.60 points per game) and Warri Wolves 3-1-1 (2.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Kwara United vs Warri Wolves?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.