La Equidad vs Atlético Nacional: match statistics
La Equidad vs Atlético Nacional: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
La Equidad played Atlético Nacional in Categoria Primera A (Colombia). The match was played on 9 May 2026. Final score: 1:2.
Current form
La Equidad: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. Atlético Nacional: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
La Equidad scores 1.37 and concedes 1.37 goals per match. Atlético Nacional scores 1.84 and concedes 0.79. League average: 2.53 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: La Equidad 63%, Atlético Nacional 37%. Over 2.5: La Equidad 63%, Atlético Nacional 63%. League level: BTTS 54%, Over 2.5 48%.
xG, shots and style
Atlético Nacional has higher xG: 1.69 vs 1.37. La Equidad: 13.1 shots per match, Atlético Nacional: 16.2.
Match halves
La Equidad: half-time lead 16%, second-half goals 0.79. Atlético Nacional: half-time lead 32%, second-half goals 1.21.
Goals by minute
La Equidad: 46-60 (7 goals). Atlético Nacional: 76-90+ (9 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Categoria Primera A: 2.53 goals per match, BTTS 54%, Over 2.5 48%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 3 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-3. Average goals 2.67, BTTS 33%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I project a home win (1). La Equidad at home averages 1.78 goals scored and 1.00 conceded, records 5.56 shots on target per match and a 12% conversion rate, while Atlético Nacional away scores 1.30, concedes 1.20 and registers 4.8 shots on target with a 10% conversion, giving La Equidad the edge in home attacking quality. Atlético Nacional however posts better season-long numbers: 13 wins versus La Equidad’s 7 and 35 goals scored versus 26, and in the last 5 matches the visitors have 3 wins with an average of 1.8 points per game versus the hosts’ 2 wins and 1.4 points. xG comparison mirrors this: home xG for La Equidad is 1.54 versus 1.44 xG for Atlético Nacional away, while average xG against is 1.26 vs 1.33, so chance quality is nearly even. Key trends favor La Equidad — hosts have 33% of matches without conceding and 33% clean sheets at home, whereas Atlético Nacional fail to score in 50% of away games and have only 10% clean sheets, therefore I estimate probabilities of roughly 50% home win, 25% draw and 25% away win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
La Equidad at home scores on average 2.44 goals with xG 1.98 from 19.22 shots and 7.33 on target, indicating significant attacking potential. Atlético Nacional away averages 1.3 goals with xG 1.44 and 4.8 shots on target, and their defense concedes on average 1.2 goals (xG against 1.33), so the visitors can find the net. In the last 5 matches the hosts had BTTS in 80% of games and conceded on average 1.4 goals, while the visitors scored 7 goals in their last 5 (1.4 per game) and conceded 5 (1.0 per game), which further supports a both teams to score scenario. This is countered by La Equidad’s seasonal home metric: only 0.33 goals conceded at home on average and 67% clean sheets and a seasonal home BTTS rate of 33%, but the xG balance and the visitors’ recent form prevail, hence a recommendation of BTTS - Yes (60%) vs No (40%).
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
xG-based models yield a combined expected goals total of approximately 2.90: La Equidad ~1.66 xG (own xG 1.98 vs average opponent xG 1.33), and Atlético Nacional ~1.24 xG (1.44 vs 1.04). Seasonal stats support this projection — La Equidad has Over 1.5 in 89% and Over 2.5 in 67% of matches, while Atlético has Over 1.5 in 60% and Over 2.5 in 60% of matches. The home side averages 7.33 shots on target per match versus Atlético’s 4.8, which correlates with the higher home xG and an increased likelihood of goals. Using a Poisson distribution we obtain probabilities of over 1.5 ≈79%, over 2.5 ≈56% and over 3.5 ≈33%, therefore the strongest value signal is Over 2.5.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
La Equidad has a clear home advantage: they score an average of 2.44 goals per match while conceding only 0.33, win 89% of matches and led at the break in 5 matches (56%). Atlético Nacional’s away numbers are weaker — 1.3 goals scored and 1.2 conceded on average, with an xG of 1.44 versus La Equidad’s 1.98, and only 10% of their away games saw the visitors leading at the break. The hosts generate more chances (19.22 shots and 7.33 on target vs. 13.5 and 4.8 for the visitors) and score after the break at a rate of 1.56 goals to 0.11 conceded, which aligns with winning 89% of second halves. For these reasons the most likely scenario is La Equidad leading at half-time and winning full-time; I assign this scenario a 48% probability, followed by a half-time draw and home win (X/1) at 20%, and a draw/draw at 15%.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| La Equidad | Atlético Nacional | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 35% | 37% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Atlético Nacional is 29% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / match - La Equidad · 1.8 pts / match - Atlético Nacional
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Atlético Nacional is 34% better for: goals scored per match.
1.37 goals / match - La Equidad · 1.84 goals / match - Atlético Nacional
Atlético Nacional is 73% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.37 goals / match - La Equidad · 0.79 goals / match - Atlético Nacional
La Equidad scores in 68% of matches (13 of 19 matches), while Atlético Nacional keeps a clean sheet in 37% (7 of 19 matches).
Atlético Nacional scores in 68% of matches (13 of 19 matches), while La Equidad keeps a clean sheet in 21% (4 of 19 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - La Equidad
Over / Under - Atlético Nacional
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Atlético Nacional is 35% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.05 pts / match - La Equidad · 1.42 pts / match - Atlético Nacional
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
La Equidad - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 16% of matches and wins 37%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Atlético Nacional - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 32% of matches and wins 68%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 80% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (7 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (9 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +8 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
La Equidad
Atlético Nacional
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Categoria Primera A).
Teams vs league
| La Equidad | Liga | Atlético Nacional | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.74 | 2.53 | ▲ 2.63 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 63% | 54% | ▼ 37% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 63% | 48% | ▲ 63% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 21% | 27% | ▲ 37% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 63% | 70% | ▲ 74% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 74% | 78% | ▲ 89% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (3): La Equidad 0 - 0 - 3 Atlético Nacional. Average goals 2.67, both teams scored in 33% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of La Equidad vs Atlético Nacional?
The Categoria Primera A match finished La Equidad 1:2 Atlético Nacional. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between La Equidad and Atlético Nacional?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches La Equidad won 0, Atlético Nacional won 3 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 2.67 goals, with both teams scoring in 33% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before La Equidad vs Atlético Nacional?
La Equidad score 1.37 goals per game on average and Atlético Nacional 1.84. The Categoria Primera A average is 2.53 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 48% of games. Both teams score in 63% of La Equidad's matches and 37% of Atlético Nacional's.
What form are La Equidad and Atlético Nacional in?
Over the last 5 games La Equidad have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Atlético Nacional 3-0-2 (1.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for La Equidad vs Atlético Nacional?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for La Equidad vs Atlético Nacional: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.