La Equidad vs Deportivo Pasto: match statistics

La Equidad enter the match in significantly more stable form: they have collected 8 points from their last five games, recording 2 wins, 2 draws and just one defeat, while Deportivo Pasto have lost 4 of their last 5 matches. The hosts win 50% of their home fixtures and score an average of 1.50 goals, whereas the visitors concede as many as 1.92 goals per away game and keep a clean sheet in only 17% of their outings. La Equidad also hold the edge in chance creation: their average xG stands at 1.60 compared with Deportivo Pasto’s 1.25, while the hosts register 5.83 shots on target per match against 4.17 for their opponents. The home side’s defence is considerably more reliable, conceding an average of 1.08 goals at home, while Pasto’s away goal difference stands at -6. The visitors can be clinical when opportunities arise, but just 4 goals in their last five matches suggest that La Equidad have the stronger chance of claiming all three points.

The BTTS - No scenario has a slight edge, as La Equidad keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches, while Deportivo Pasto fail to score in 33% of games. The visitors have scored just 4 goals in their last five outings, averaging 0.8 per match, with an xG of only 0.98. La Equidad’s scoring form is clearly better: the team have recently averaged 1.4 goals with an xG of 1.65, while Pasto have conceded 1.4 goals per game over the same period. Although Pasto have a season BTTS rate of 58%, both teams scored in only 20% of their last five matches, which limits the visitors’ chances of finding a response. The hosts should have good opportunities to score, but Pasto’s weaker current attacking output provides stronger support for a result in which at least one team fails to score.

La Equidad should create more chances, as Deportivo Pasto concede an average of 1.92 goals, while the hosts have generated an xG of 1.65 per match over their last five fixtures. However, the visitors’ attacking potential is limited by La Equidad’s more solid defense, which concedes just 1.07 goals per game on average this season, whereas Pasto have scored only 0.8 goals per match across their last five games. The projected total of 2.40 goals points to a match with a likelihood of 2–3 goals, but there is no strong basis for a high-scoring game. La Equidad have seen fewer than 3.5 goals in 93% of their matches this season, while Pasto, despite their more open profile, have also stayed below this line in 58% of games. Therefore, the safest pick is Under 3.5 goals, supported by the hosts’ low frequency of very high-scoring results and the visitors’ weaker current attacking form.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a La Equidad win at the final whistle, as the hosts were level at the break in 8 of their 14 matches, or 57% of the time. La Equidad concede an average of just 0.36 goals before half-time, while Deportivo Pasto allow opponents to score 0.92 goals in this period, which points to a cautious and evenly balanced opening. After the interval, the form favours the hosts: in their last 5 matches, they averaged 1.0 goals in the second half, while Pasto failed to score in any of those second halves. The visitors have lost 4 of their last 5 matches and scored just 0.8 goals per game during that run, whereas La Equidad have collected 1.6 points per match while averaging 1.4 goals scored. In addition, Pasto concede an average of 1.92 goals per match, and their xG against stands at 1.37 compared with the hosts' attacking xG of 1.21, so La Equidad's advantage should become more pronounced after the break.