Larissa vs Zakynthos: match statistics

Zakynthos come into this match in better current form, having won 3 of their last 5 games and scored 15 goals in the process, while Larissa have recorded 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 10 goals. The visitors have also conceded fewer, allowing 7 goals in their last five matches compared with 9 for the hosts. Larissa should see more of the ball, averaging 63% possession to Zakynthos’ 53%, and they also register more shots at home, 9 per match compared with 4. However, their advantage in chance quality is limited, with an xG of 1.13 versus Zakynthos’ 0.67. The visitors’ defence looks more solid based on expected goals against, conceding an average xG of 0.76, while Larissa allow opponents 1.02. Both teams drew their only previous match in the respective home and away roles, so a draw remains a realistic outcome, although the more clinical Zakynthos have a slight edge.

The case for BTTS - Yes is primarily based on the teams’ last five matches: Larissa recorded BTTS in 60% of games, while Zakynthos did so in 40%. During this period, the hosts scored an average of 2.0 goals and conceded 1.8, whereas the visitors scored as many as 3.0 goals and conceded 1.4. Larissa allowed opponents an average of 1.72 xG, while Zakynthos allowed 1.66 xG, indicating genuine goal-scoring opportunities at both ends. Although the seasonal data is very limited, the league-wide BTTS average stands at 56%, and both teams’ current attacking form is clearly above the league average of 2.0 goals per match. The most likely scenario is therefore one in which each team scores at least one goal.

The latest form of both teams indicates strong scoring potential: Larissa averaged 2.0 goals scored and 1.8 conceded in their last five matches, resulting in a combined average of 3.8 goals per game. Over the same period, Zakynthos scored as many as 3.0 goals per match, while their games produced an average of 4.4 goals, including 1.4 goals conceded. Over 2.5 goals landed in 80% of Larissa’s last five matches and in 60% of Zakynthos’ games, clearly above the league figure of 28%. Caution is warranted due to the limited current-season sample, in which Zakynthos drew 1:1 and recorded just 0.67 xG. Nevertheless, the projected total of 3.03 goals gives the strongest edge to Over 1.5, as two goals should be achievable even with regression from the highly attacking recent form.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Zakynthos win at full-time, as the visitors have averaged 3.0 goals and won 60% of their last five matches, compared with Larissa’s 2.0 goals and 40% win rate. Zakynthos were level at the break in 40% of their recent matches and were behind after the first half in only 20%, which supports a cautious opening without a clear home advantage. After the break, the visitors scored an average of 1.8 goals, while Larissa conceded 1.2 goals per match in the second half; additionally, Zakynthos kept a clean sheet after half-time in 60% of their recent appearances. Both teams scored in the second half of each of their last five matches, while at least two goals after the break were scored in 100% of Larissa’s matches and 80% of Zakynthos’s. The hosts’ seasonal data is very limited, so the visitors’ advantage is primarily based on their clearly stronger current form and second-half efficiency. The HT/FT pick is therefore X/2.