LASK Linz vs Ried: match statistics

LASK Linz sit top of the home table and have won both of their matches so far this season, scoring 5 goals and conceding none. At home, the hosts create chances worth an average of 2.67 xG, register 23 shots and 10 shots on target per match, while their defence allows opponents just 0.48 xG. Away from home, Ried score only 1 goal on average despite taking 23 shots, which is attributable to their very low conversion rate of 4%; they also concede an average of one goal per game. LASK’s form is clearly superior as well: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches and scored 15 goals in that run, while Ried have suffered 2 defeats and conceded 8 goals over the same period. The visitors are capable of maintaining 60% possession and generate 2.38 xG away from home, but the hosts’ superiority in defence and finishing points to a LASK victory.

The BTTS - No pick is primarily based on LASK’s current defensive form: in their last 5 matches, the team conceded just 2 goals, averaging 0.4 per game, while their average xG conceded stands at only 0.74. LASK kept a clean sheet in 3 of those 5 appearances, reflected in a BTTS rate of 0% over this period. Ried are capable of scoring, averaging 1.8 goals and 1.94 xG across their last 5 matches, but they also concede 1.6 goals per game and allow opponents an xG of 1.40. The hosts are in excellent attacking form, scoring an average of 3.0 goals in their last five fixtures, making a home win with the visitors failing to score the most likely scenario. Both teams’ seasonal 100% BTTS record is based on a very small number of matches and is less reliable than LASK’s clearly superior five-match defensive run.

LASK averaged 3.0 goals scored and created chances worth 2.45 xG in their last five matches, while Ried conceded 1.6 goals per game over the same period. The visitors also possess attacking arguments: they averaged 1.8 goals scored, with 1.94 xG, while LASK allowed opponents 0.74 xG per match. Both teams cleared the 1.5-goal threshold in 100% of their league matches so far, while in their last five games, the 2.5-goal line was covered in 60% and 80% of cases, respectively. The projected total of 3.30 goals is well above the 1.5 line, making Over 1.5 the strongest selection, despite the current-season sample still being limited. The high shot volume—18.0 for LASK and 23.0 for Ried per match—further supports a scenario with at least two goals.

LASK are in considerably better form: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 3.0 goals and conceding just 0.4, while Ried have lost 2 of their 5 games and conceded an average of 1.6 goals. The hosts led at the break in 60% of their last five appearances, whereas the visitors went into half-time trailing in as many as 40% of their matches. In addition, LASK conceded an average of just 0.2 goals in the first halves, compared with 0.6 for Ried. The quality of chances also favours the Linz side, who record an xG of 2.17 and 9 shots on target per match, while Ried’s xG against stands at 1.46. After the break, LASK have averaged 2.2 goals in their last five matches and won the second half in 80% of cases, whereas Ried have won the second half only once. The most likely scenario is therefore that the hosts will take the lead before half-time and either preserve or extend it by the final whistle.