Latina vs Atalanta II: match statistics

Latina boasts a clearly stronger home profile: they are unbeaten in three home matches, drawing 67% of them and conceding an average of just 0.33 goals. The hosts also create better chances, averaging 1.94 xG compared with Atalanta II’s 1.24 away from home, while also taking 16 shots per match against their opponents’ 10.33. Atalanta II have lost 2 of their 3 away matches, kept no clean sheets on the road and concede an average of 1.67 goals. However, the visitors have won 3 of their last 5 matches, so a draw remains a realistic outcome, but Latina’s defensive advantage and superior chance creation make them the more convincing side.

The BTTS scenario is supported by current form, as both teams recorded it in 60% of their last five matches, above the league average of 56%. Latina averaged 1.6 goals scored during this period, while Atalanta II averaged 1.4, conceding 1.2 and 1.4 goals per match respectively. The hosts have been creating particularly many chances, with an average xG of 2.10 in their last five outings, while the visitors have allowed opponents an xG of 1.90. Neither team has kept a clean sheet in the league so far, which significantly increases the chances of both sides scoring at least once. Atalanta II has a lower seasonal BTTS rate, 33% compared with Latina’s 67%, but its seven goals in the last five matches support the expectation that they will also find the net in this fixture.

Latina averages 1.33 goals, while Atalanta II concedes as many as 1.67, supporting a home-team projection of around 1.5 goals. In their last five matches, Latina has recorded 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game, while Atalanta II’s figures stand at 1.4:1.4, producing an average of 2.8 goals across both teams’ matches. The underlying data also points toward goals: Latina’s average xG over five matches is 2.10, while Atalanta II’s opponents have been allowed 1.90 xG during the same period. Neither team has kept a clean sheet in the league so far, and at least two goals have been scored in 100% of Latina’s matches and 67% of Atalanta II’s games. The strongest option is Over 1.5 goals, as the 2.80-goal projection provides a clear margin above this line, with less risk than Over 2.5.

Latina have the stronger case for the first half: in their last five matches, they were leading at the break in 60% of games, scoring an average of 1.2 goals before half-time and conceding just 0.2. Over the same period, Atalanta II scored only 0.4 goals per match before the break, while as many as 60% of their matches were level after 45 minutes. The hosts have also been more effective throughout the season at home, averaging 2.0 points per game with a 67% win rate, compared with the visitors’ 1.0 point per away match and 67% loss rate. Latina create more chances, averaging 14.0 shots and 4.67 on target, whereas Atalanta II record 10.33 and 2.67 respectively. The scenario of Latina leading at half-time and maintaining their advantage until full-time is therefore the strongest HT/FT option, although the hosts’ open defensive approach, which sees them concede an average of 1.33 goals, limits its edge over the draw-at-half-time scenario.