Latina vs Forlì: match statistics

Both teams have recorded one away or home draw, respectively, and their statistics in these conditions point to a very evenly matched contest. Latina are yet to concede at home, with an xG against of 0.67, but they have also failed to score despite averaging 58% possession and 12 shots per match. Forlì create more clear-cut chances away from home, averaging 5 shots on target and 2 goals per game, but they also concede 2 goals, while their opponents generate 1.31 xG against them. Latina’s last five matches produced 9 goals scored and 6 conceded, whereas Forlì remain unbeaten, although as many as 4 of their last 5 games ended in draws. The hosts’ solid defensive record should limit the visitors’ attacking output, but their ongoing struggles in front of goal point towards the points being shared.

The signal for both teams to score is clear: Latina and Forlì have recorded BTTS in 100% of their matches so far, while the league average is only 50%. Over their last five games, this rate remains high at 60% for Latina and 80% for Forlì, with the teams averaging 1.8 and 2.0 goals scored, respectively. The hosts have failed to keep a clean sheet, while Forlì also have 0% of matches without conceding, strengthening the chances of both sides finding the net. Their attacking potential is supported by Latina’s xG of 1.61 and Forlì’s 1.66 over their last five outings, with xG against opponents standing at 0.98 and 1.34, respectively. The BTTS - Yes pick is the strongest option, although Latina’s lower number of goals conceded in their current form compared with the season-long picture calls for slightly reduced confidence.

Both teams have scored plenty of goals in their last 5 matches: Latina averaged 1.8, while Forlì averaged 2.0 per game, although their average goals conceded stood at just 1.2 and 1.4 respectively. Their attacking potential is also reflected in the xG from their last five appearances: 1.61 for the hosts and 1.66 for the visitors, pointing to a game with a realistic chance of producing 2–3 goals. At the same time, only 40% of the last five matches played by each team went over 2.5 goals, despite both sides frequently finding the net. The projected total of 2.72 goals is above the league average of 2.45, but remains clearly below four goals, which is why Under 3.5 has the strongest statistical backing.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Latina victory, as the hosts were level after 45 minutes in 3 of their last 5 matches, while Forlì did so in as many as 4 of 5. Latina scored just 0.4 goals per match in the first halves and conceded 0.8, which points to a cautious opening, whereas the visitors recorded an average half-time scoreline of 1.0:0.6. After the break, the hosts improve significantly: they score an average of 1.4 goals and concede just 0.4, compared with Forlì’s 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded. Across their last five matches, Latina won 40% of their games and scored 1.8 goals per match, while Forlì drew as many as 80% of their matches despite remaining unbeaten. Latina’s advantage is also supported by a higher xG, 1.85 compared with 1.31, as well as an average of 7 shots on target against Forlì’s 5. Therefore, the most likely outcome is a turnaround in the second half, with the hosts breaking the deadlock.