Latina vs Ostia Mare Lidocalcio: match statistics

Latina have the home advantage: they are unbeaten in their three home matches, conceding an average of just 0.33 goals and keeping a clean sheet in 67% of games. They also create more chances than their opponents do away from home, with an average xG of 1.94 compared with Ostia Mare’s 1.43, and 5.67 shots on target compared with 3.5. The visitors are more clinical, however: away from home, they score an average of 1.5 goals with a 12% shot conversion rate, while Latina average 1 goal at home with a 6% conversion rate. Both teams have identical form over their last five matches — two wins, a draw and two defeats each — but the visitors’ defence allows opponents an xG of 1.70, compared with 0.89 in Latina’s home matches. A narrow home win is therefore the likeliest outcome, although two draws in Latina’s three home games suggest that the points could also be shared.

BTTS landed in 67% of Latina’s home matches and 50% of Ostia Mare’s away matches, while both teams saw BTTS in 60% of their last 5 games. Latina scored just 0.67 goals per game at home, but its average has risen to 1.6 over its last 5 matches, with an xG of 2.1. Ostia Mare averaged 1.5 goals away from home, while Latina failed to keep a clean sheet at home and conceded 1.33 goals per game. The visitors, meanwhile, conceded 1.25 goals per away match and allowed opponents chances worth an average xG of 1.82 across their last 5 games, increasing the hosts’ chances of scoring. The risk with BTTS - Yes is that Latina failed to score in 33% of its home matches; however, both teams’ current attacking output points towards goals at both ends.

The strongest signal is for Under 3.5 goals: this line has not been exceeded in any of Latina’s matches so far, or in 75% of Ostia Mare’s games. Latina’s last five matches averaged 2.8 goals, while Ostia Mare’s fixtures averaged 2.6, also supporting this line. At the same time, Latina scores only 0.67 goals per game on average this season, despite an xG of 1.77, so its attacking potential is not fully translating into goals. I expect around 2.53 goals in total, making Under 3.5 goals a stronger pick than choosing a side on the 2.5 line.

The strongest first-half signal favors Ostia Mare: they led at the break in 2 of 4 away matches and did not concede a first-half goal in any of them, while Latina failed to score before half-time in all 3 home matches and were trailing twice. The visitors score an average of 1.5 goals per away match, compared with just 0.67 for the hosts at home, increasing the likelihood that any lead will be maintained. Ostia also average 1.5 points away from home, versus Latina’s 0.33 at home. However, the 2/2 scenario is not a certainty: the visitors concede an average of 1.25 goals after half-time, while Latina have averaged 1.6 goals per match over their last 5 games, compared with Ostia’s 1.4. Despite the risk of an equaliser after the break, the combination of the visitors’ away scoring form and the hosts’ poor first-half performances makes Ostia leading at the break and winning the most likely single outcome.