Latina vs Pianese: match statistics

Latina are the favourites: they have won 50% of their home matches and have not lost any, while Pianese have yet to win away and have lost 67% of their away games. In their last five league matches, the hosts have collected 9 points and remained unbeaten, while the visitors have picked up 6 points. Latina concede an average of just 0.33 goals at home and keep a clean sheet in 67% of matches, which could be particularly significant against Pianese, who score an average of 0.5 goals away and fail to find the net in 67% of their away games. The hosts also create chances worth an average of 1.84 xG at home, while the visitors allow up to 1.73 xG away; nevertheless, a draw remains a realistic outcome, as Latina have drawn 50% of their home matches.

At least one team is more likely not to score: Latina average 0.6 goals at home, while Pianese score just 0.5 away. The hosts keep a clean sheet in 60% of their home matches, while the visitors fail to score in 67% of their away games. The indicators point in both directions: Latina fail to find the net in 60% of home matches, and Pianese keep a clean sheet in 33% of away games. Matches in which both teams score account for 40% and 33%, respectively, below the league average of 54%. The last five matches and xG figures of 1.64 and 1.67 suggest attacking potential, so BTTS - No has the edge, but is not a certainty.

Latina average 0.6 goals scored and 0.4 conceded at home, while Pianese score 0.5 goals and concede 1.33 away from home, pointing to a moderate goal total. The 3.5-goal line has not been exceeded in any of Latina’s home matches and has held in 83% of Pianese’s away fixtures. Latina’s last five matches have also produced an average of just 1.8 goals, with 1.2 scored and 0.6 conceded. The xG figures for both teams—1.69 and 1.77, respectively—add some uncertainty, but their shooting conversion rates are just 4% and 3%. Therefore, Under 3.5 goals is the strongest pick, with an estimated probability of 85%.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome: Latina went into the break level in 4 of their 5 home matches, while Pianese did so in 4 of their 6 away fixtures; neither team led at the break in those matches. The low average number of goals scored before half-time also points to a goalless or closely contested first half: 0.20 for the hosts and 0.17 for the visitors. A draw at full-time has slightly stronger backing than a Latina win, as the hosts drew 4 of their 5 home matches, scoring an average of just 0.60 goals. Pianese did lose 67% of their away fixtures and conceded an average of 1.33 goals, so HT/FT outcomes involving a Latina win remain plausible. However, the visitors scored just 0.33 goals after the break, while Latina conceded none in that period at home. Overall, these figures point primarily to a low-scoring match, with the game remaining level from half-time to full-time.