LDU Portoviejo vs Cuniburo: match statistics

Cuniburo is the favorite based on form and finishing: they sit 3rd, have scored 14 goals this season and 10 goals in the last 5 matches with a 3-2-0 record, while LDU Portoviejo have 8 goals this season and in their last 5 matches record 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses. The hosts create more chances — at home they average 15 shots and 5 on target with xG 1.74, but their finishing rate is only 7%, yielding an average of 1.0 goal per game; the visitors on the road average 3.75 shots with xG 0.67, yet convert 27% and average 0.8 goals per game. Defensively LDU looks solid at home (0.5 goals conceded per game and 50% clean sheets), while Cuniburo concede 0.8 goals away and have only 20% clean sheets, with xG against 0.45. The key trend is the points-per-game difference over the last 5 matches: Cuniburo average 2.2 points per game versus 0.6 for LDU, demonstrating a clear form advantage for the visitors. Considering Cuniburo’s superior conversion (27%), 10 goals in their last five and an average of 2.2 points per game, I forecast an away win, although a draw is a realistic outcome given the hosts’ higher chance volume and their 50% clean sheet rate.

I back BTTS (Both Teams To Score) — 70% vs 30% for No, based on recent form and metrics. In their last 5 matches LDU Portoviejo show BTTS at 80% and concede on average 1.6 goals per game, while Cuniburo have BTTS 60% and score on average 2.0 goals in their last five outings, strongly indicating both teams’ real ability to find the net. Seasonally LDU have low BTTS at 20% and keep a clean sheet in 60% of matches, but their seasonal goals average is 2.0 and home xG is 1.59 versus Cuniburo’s defensive xG 0.45, so hosts have chance-creating potential. Cuniburo, despite only 3.75 shots per game, have high conversion 27% and 2.5 shots on target on average, meaning they can score efficiently from fewer chances. Considering LDU’s shooting advantage (12.8 shots and 5.4 on target on average) and the hosts’ recent defensive issues (8 goals conceded in the last 5), the BTTS — Yes scenario appears more likely.

After weighing seasonal and recent data I estimate 1.55 goals for LDU Portoviejo and 1.10 for Cuniburo, totaling 2.65 goals. The hosts score on average 2.0 goals per match with xG 1.59 and register 12.8 shots (5.4 on target) with a 16% conversion, while Cuniburo’s defense has xG against 0.45; the baseline xG average ((1.59+0.45)/2=1.04) was adjusted upward due to the hosts’ high shot volume to ~1.55. Cuniburo have a seasonal average of 0.8 goals and xG 0.67, but in their last 5 matches they scored 10 goals and their last 5 games show xG 1.58, so I assign them 1.10 goals instead of the lower seasonal level. For a total of 2.65 the Poisson model gives about a 74% chance of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5), about 49% for at least 3 goals (Over 2.5) and about 27% for 4+ goals (Over 3.5); combined with seasonal over-1.5 rates of hosts 80% and visitors 60% this constitutes a strong signal for Over 1.5. Recommendation: play Over 1.5 — this is the strongest signal given the combined xG 2.65, 12.8 home shots and Cuniburo’s 10 goals in their last 5 matches.

Seasonal metrics favor LDU Portoviejo: the hosts score an average of 2.0 goals at home and concede 0.6, have an xG of 1.59 versus Cuniburo’s 0.67 and average 12.8 shots with 5.4 on target per match compared to the visitors’ 3.75 and 2.5. At Half-Time the data are balanced — LDU led at the break in 40% of matches and were level at half in 40%, while Cuniburo were level at half in 80%, so a draw HT is a realistic outcome. The hosts’ decisive advantage emerges after the break: LDU score an average of 1.4 goals in the second half, concede only 0.2 and register 80% wins in second halves, which suggests turnarounds or taking the lead after the 45th minute. Although Cuniburo have better recent form over the last five matches (3 wins, 60% win rate) and higher shot efficiency (27%), their lower xG of 0.67 and smaller shot volume limit their chances of holding a lead, hence the selection of X/1 (draw at half / home win at full-time).