Le Havre vs Toulouse: match statistics
Statistical analysis indicates a very evenly matched contest between the teams. Le Havre displays solid home form with a 36% win rate and only 18% losses at their home ground, while their goal difference in home matches is +3. Toulouse, despite a better league position (8th place), has an identical away goal difference (+3) and a 40% win rate, but also 40% losses on the road. A key factor is recent form – both teams have averaged 1.6-2.0 points per match in their last five games. xG statistics show the hosts' advantage (1.49 vs 1.12), however Toulouse has a better shot conversion rate (13% vs 9%). Considering Le Havre's high draw rate in home matches (45%) and the similar average goals per match for both teams (around 2.1), the most likely scenario is a points share.
Le Havre vs Toulouse: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Le Havre played Toulouse in Ligue 1 (France). The match was played on 15 February 2026. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
Le Havre: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match. Toulouse: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Le Havre scores 0.86 and concedes 1.24 goals per match. Toulouse scores 1.48 and concedes 1.14. League average: 2.82 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Le Havre 48%, Toulouse 38%. Over 2.5: Le Havre 38%, Toulouse 48%. League level: BTTS 49%, Over 2.5 52%.
xG, shots and style
Toulouse has higher xG: 1.37 vs 1.28. Le Havre: 11.2 shots per match, Toulouse: 12.2.
Match halves
Le Havre: half-time lead 10%, second-half goals 0.57. Toulouse: half-time lead 29%, second-half goals 0.95.
Goals by minute
Le Havre: 76-90+ (5 goals). Toulouse: 76-90+ (10 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Ligue 1: 2.82 goals per match, BTTS 49%, Over 2.5 52%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-0. Average goals 0.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Statistical analysis indicates a very evenly matched contest between the teams. Le Havre displays solid home form with a 36% win rate and only 18% losses at their home ground, while their goal difference in home matches is +3. Toulouse, despite a better league position (8th place), has an identical away goal difference (+3) and a 40% win rate, but also 40% losses on the road. A key factor is recent form – both teams have averaged 1.6-2.0 points per match in their last five games. xG statistics show the hosts' advantage (1.49 vs 1.12), however Toulouse has a better shot conversion rate (13% vs 9%). Considering Le Havre's high draw rate in home matches (45%) and the similar average goals per match for both teams (around 2.1), the most likely scenario is a points share.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Le Havre | Toulouse | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 34% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.23 | 0.35 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Le Havre is 14% better for: last-5 form.
1.6 pts / match - Le Havre · 1.4 pts / match - Toulouse
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Toulouse is 72% better for: goals scored per match.
0.86 goals / match - Le Havre · 1.48 goals / match - Toulouse
Toulouse is 9% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.24 goals / match - Le Havre · 1.14 goals / match - Toulouse
Le Havre scores in 57% of matches (12 of 21 matches), while Toulouse keeps a clean sheet in 38% (8 of 21 matches).
Toulouse scores in 67% of matches (14 of 21 matches), while Le Havre keeps a clean sheet in 29% (6 of 21 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Le Havre
Over / Under - Toulouse
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Toulouse is 44% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.86 pts / match - Le Havre · 1.24 pts / match - Toulouse
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Le Havre - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 10% of matches and wins 24%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Toulouse - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 29% of matches and wins 38%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.0 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +4 | -2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (5 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (10 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Le Havre
Toulouse
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ligue 1).
Teams vs league
| Le Havre | Liga | Toulouse | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.10 | 2.82 | ▼ 2.62 |
| Both teams scored | • 48% | 49% | ▼ 38% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 38% | 52% | ▼ 48% |
| Clean sheets | • 29% | 29% | ▲ 38% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 52% | 70% | ▼ 62% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 71% | 78% | ▼ 67% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Le Havre 0 - 1 - 0 Toulouse. Average goals 0.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Le Havre vs Toulouse?
The Ligue 1 match finished Le Havre 2:1 Toulouse. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Le Havre vs Toulouse?
Le Havre score 0.86 goals per game on average and Toulouse 1.48. The Ligue 1 average is 2.82 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 52% of games. Both teams score in 48% of Le Havre's matches and 38% of Toulouse's.
What form are Le Havre and Toulouse in?
Over the last 5 games Le Havre have a 2-2-1 record (1.60 points per game) and Toulouse 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Le Havre vs Toulouse?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Le Havre vs Toulouse: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.