Le Puy F.43 Auvergne vs Dijon: match statistics

Dijon is the favorite: they sit 1st with a record of 16-11-3 and 47 goals scored, while Le Puy are 7th with a 12-10-8 record and 42 goals. Dijon’s main edge is defense — visitors concede only 0.6 goals per away match (22 conceded this season) versus Le Puy’s 1.13 conceded at home (34 conceded), and Dijon’s away clean sheet rate is 53% compared to the hosts’ 20%. In terms of chance quality the teams are similar: Le Puy has home xG of 1.38 and averages 1.4 goals per match, while Dijon’s away xG is 1.30 with 1.2 goals on average; the hosts average 11.8 shots and 4.07 on target, Dijon 10.53 and 3.73. In the last 5 matches Le Puy scored 6 and conceded 8 (1W-2D-2L, 1.0 points per game), whereas Dijon have 5 scored and 5 conceded with 2 wins in their last 5 (1.4 points per game); combined with a lower away loss rate for Dijon (7% vs 20%) this favors the visitors, although Le Puy’s low FTS (13% vs 27% for Dijon) suggests the hosts are also likely to score.

Le Puy at home averages 1.93 goals per match, produces 13.8 shots (4.87 on target) with a 14% conversion rate, demonstrating genuine offensive potential for the hosts. Dijon concedes only 0.6 goals on average away and has a 53% clean sheet rate on the road, but their xG against is 1.12 — significantly higher than 0.6, indicating that the current conceded-goals figure may understate the quality of chances they allow. A simple xG balance (1.62 xG for Le Puy vs 1.12 xG against Dijon → ≈1.37 for the hosts; 1.3 xG for Dijon vs 0.8 xG against Le Puy → ≈1.05 for the visitors) yields values around 1.37 and 1.05, meaning both teams statistically have a chance to score. Against BTTS: the seasonal BTTS rates of 53% for Le Puy and 47% for Dijon, plus a low BTTS rate in the last 5 matches of 40% for both, and the league’s high clean sheet percentage of 60% lower confidence. Considering the hosts’ strong attack (1.93 goals, 13.8 shots, 14% conversion) and the divergence between Dijon’s xG against and actual goals conceded (1.12 xG against vs 0.6 conceded), I forecast BTTS - Yes 60% vs No 40%.

The model based on xG and match averages yields expected goals of 1.37 for Le Puy and 1.05 for Dijon, totaling 2.42 goals. Le Puy at home scores on average 1.93 goals and generates 1.62 xG with 13.8 shots and 4.87 shots on target, while Dijon away averages 1.2 goals and 1.3 xG with 3.73 shots on target; this suggests a home advantage in chance creation. Historical frequencies show Over 1.5 occurs for Le Puy in 73% of home matches and for Dijon in 53% of away matches, so Over 1.5 appears a strong signal (predicted probability ~82%). Over 2.5 has less support: Le Puy has 53% of matches over 2.5, Dijon 33%, and the expected 2.42 goals places Over 2.5 around 45% probability, while Over 3.5 is unlikely (about 20%) given only 33% of home matches and 13% of away matches exceed 3.5. Based on this, I recommend playing Over 1.5 as the strongest signal, since the expected 2.42 goals and 73%/53% historical over1.5 rates provide a clear edge for this option.

Both teams average 0.73 goals by Half-Time (home 0.73, Dijon 0.73), indicating a high likelihood of an HT draw. Dijon draws at the break in 53% of matches, while Le Puy does so in 33% (drawingAtHTPercentage_away 53 vs drawingAtHTPercentage_home 33), so a draw at Half-Time is particularly probable. After the break, however, Le Puy dominates: they score an average of 1.2 goals in the second half, while Dijon only 0.47 (scored_2hg_avg_home 1.2 vs scored_2hg_avg_away 0.47), and Le Puy’s second-half goal difference is +11 versus +2 for Dijon (gd_2hg_home 11 vs gd_2hg_away 2). Additionally, Le Puy’s xG is 1.62 versus Dijon’s 1.3, they register more shots (13.8 vs 10.53) and more shots on target (4.87 vs 3.73) with better conversion of 14% compared to 11%, confirming the home side’s offensive advantage. As a result, the most likely scenario is a draw at Half-Time followed by a Le Puy turnaround to win Full-Time (X/1).