Le Puy F.43 Auvergne vs Versailles: match statistics

I predict a home win. Le Puy in their last 5 matches have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss (8 goals scored) and average 2 points per game, while Versailles over their last 5 are 2-1-2, averaging 1.4 points and 7 goals. At home Le Puy averages 12.14 shots per match, 4 on target, translating to 1.36 goals and xG 1.40 per game; Versailles as visitors average 10.15 shots and 2.85 on target, with 1.14 goals and xG 1.22. Defensively Le Puy concedes 1.07 goals at home with conceded xG 1.01, whereas Versailles concede 1.00 goals away but have a higher conceded xG of 1.42 and fail to score more often (36% of away matches without a goal vs 14% of Le Puy home matches). Considering the higher volume of chances created by the home side, superior xG and points form (2.0 vs 1.4), I favor Le Puy, although a draw or a narrow away win are possible.

Le Puy averages 1.64 goals per match with xG 1.52, while Versailles concedes 1.00 goal per match with xG against 1.42, indicating the home side has a real chance to score. Versailles averages 1.14 goals and has xG_for 1.22, and Le Puy concedes 1.07 goals per match on the season; this shows the visitors can also find the net. Counterpoints are Le Puy’s season BTTS of 50% versus only 36% for Versailles and the fact Versailles have failed to score in 36% of their matches this season, which reduces the likelihood of both teams scoring. In the last 5 matches BTTS occurred in 40% of games; Le Puy scored 8 and conceded 4 in that period (1.6 and 0.8 per match), and Versailles scored 7 and conceded 5 (1.4 and 1.0), providing moderate support for the Goal/Goal scenario. Considering Le Puy’s higher shots on target (4.5 vs 2.85), favorable xG relationships (1.52 vs 1.42 and 1.22 vs 1.16) and a league BTTS rate of 53%, I give a slight edge to BTTS - Yes and rate BTTS at 56% vs 44% for No Goal.

I project Over 1.5 as the strongest signal: expected goals are 1.40 for Le Puy and 1.15 for Versailles, totaling 2.55, which in a Poisson model yields about a 72% chance of at least 2 goals. Le Puy averages 1.64 goals per game with xG 1.52 and 4.5 shots on target, while Versailles records 1.14 goals and xG 1.22 with 2.85 shots on target, so the home side holds a clear attacking edge. Seasonal shares show Le Puy has 86% of matches over 1.5 goals, Versailles 64%, and both teams have Over 0.5 rates of 100% and 93% respectively, increasing the probability of at least two goals. For the 2.5 line the model estimates the chance of Over at about 47%, and for 3.5 only around 25%, hence the 1.5 line is the strongest and most reliable choice. Additionally, in the last 5 matches Le Puy has scored 8 and conceded 4, and Versailles 7 scored and 5 conceded, supporting the predicted total of approximately 2.55 goals.

Le Puy has a clear offensive advantage: the home side’s average xG is 1.52 versus Versailles’ 1.22, and the hosts register an average of 4.5 on-target shots per match compared to 2.85 for the visitors, suggesting more high-quality scoring opportunities. At half-time Le Puy averages 0.79 goals versus 0.50 for their opponents, and in the last five matches the hosts led at the break in 60% of cases (3 of 5), which increases the likelihood of a lead at the break. Over the full 90 minutes the hosts win 57% of matches compared to Versailles’ 43% and have a higher average points return (1.86 vs. 1.50), so maintaining the lead through to the end is statistically plausible. Additionally, the visitors concede an average of 1.42 xG per match (xG against), the hosts produce more total shots (12.36 vs. 10.15) and have a slightly better shot conversion rate (13% vs. 12%), which reinforces the scenario that Le Puy will score and hold that lead. On this basis, the strongest signal from the data is an HT/FT 1/1 (lead at the break and a Le Puy victory), while draws (e.g. X/X) or a Versailles turnaround are considered less likely.