Leça vs São João Ver: match statistics

São João Ver are showing a clearly stronger recent run: they are unbeaten in their last 5 matches, winning 3 and drawing 2. The visitors have conceded just 2 goals during this period, an average of 0.4 per match, while Leça have allowed 7, averaging 1.4. Although Leça have scored more goals in their last five appearances—8 compared with 5—their record of 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat is weaker than their opponents’. São João Ver’s average of 2.2 points from their last five matches exceeds Leça’s 1.6, and the visitors’ particularly solid defensive record could prove decisive in securing a narrow victory. However, the gap in league positions—Leça in 4th place and São João Ver in 7th—limits the extent of the visitors’ advantage and increases the likelihood of a draw.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, as São João Ver have conceded just 2 goals in their last five matches, averaging 0.4 per game. Leça scored 1.6 goals per match during this period and recorded BTTS in 80% of their games, but their opponents show significantly better defensive organisation than the hosts, who conceded an average of 1.4 goals. The visitors have seen BTTS in only 40% of their last five matches, while their average goals scored stands at exactly 1.0. Although Leça’s xG is 1.60 and São João Ver’s is 1.39, the visitors’ low number of goals conceded increases the likelihood that at least one team will fail to score.

Full-season data is unavailable, so the assessment is based on the last five matches played by both teams. During this period, Leça averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, while São João Ver scored 1.0 goal and allowed opponents just 0.4 goals per match. At the same time, both teams had at least three goals in 40% of their matches, which does not support the prospect of a highly open game. The estimated xG is 1.20 for the hosts and 1.13 for the visitors, totaling 2.33 goals—well below the 3.5 line. The strongest signal is therefore Under 3.5, as the visitors’ defensive form reduces the likelihood of four or more goals.

The strongest signal is a half-time draw followed by a São João Ver win, as the visitors were level at the break in each of their last five matches. Leça led at half-time in 2 of those 5 games, but they were equally likely to go into the break level, meaning a dominant home lead from the outset is not the prevailing scenario. After the interval, São João Ver averaged 0.6 goals and conceded none, recording 2.2 points per match and a 60% win rate during this period. The visitors are unbeaten in their last five outings, winning 3 of them and conceding an average of just 0.4 goals per match, while Leça lost 60% of their matches after half-time. The hosts have scored more recently, averaging 1.6 goals per match, but their defence allowed 1.4 goals, which, combined with the visitors’ highly stable defensive record, strengthens the scenario of a turnaround in favour of the visitors after the break.