Lecce vs Roma: match statistics

Both teams won their only league match so far, with Roma scoring 4 goals and Lecce 2, while neither side conceded. In their last five matches, Lecce scored 6 goals and conceded 5, giving them a clearly more stable defensive record than Roma’s 11:10. The hosts won 3 of their 5 matches during this period and averaged 1.8 points per game, while Roma recorded 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, averaging 1.4 points. Roma possess greater attacking potential, but conceding 10 goals in their last five outings suggests that Lecce should find a way to score. With the teams showing a similar level of current form and Lecce benefiting from home advantage, a draw appears the most likely outcome.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, as Lecce have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their season matches and have not recorded a single game in which both teams scored. In their last 5 matches, the hosts conceded only 1.0 goal on average, while Roma, despite averaging 2.2 goals scored, recorded BTTS at 60%. Lecce nevertheless have a low BTTS rate in their last five, at just 20%, with an attacking xG average of 1.34 and 1.58 xG conceded to opponents. Roma’s data is more open, as they concede an average of 2.0 goals per match and allow 1.43 xG, but the overall league BTTS rate of 40% and Lecce’s very strong season-long defensive profile increase the likelihood that at least one team will fail to score.

Lecce’s last five matches produced an average of 2.2 total goals, while Roma recorded as many as 4.2 goals per game, scoring 2.2 and conceding 2.0. The hosts averaged 1.2 goals per match during this period, while Roma’s defence allowed opponents 2.0 goals, creating a realistic path to a Lecce goal. Roma also have a solid attacking foundation: their average xG over the last five matches stands at 1.43, compared with 1.58 xG conceded by Lecce. The projected total of 2.85 goals is above the league average of 2.4, giving Over 1.5 a clear edge; only two goals are needed to cover this line, while the 2.5 and 3.5 lines are considerably more sensitive to finishing efficiency.

Roma averaged 2.2 goals scored across their last five matches, compared with Lecce’s 1.2, giving the visitors a clear offensive edge. Roma held a lead at the break in 40% of those games, while Lecce were also trailing at half-time in 40%, providing solid grounds for an HT/FT scenario in which Roma are ahead before the interval. After the break, Roma averaged 1.4 goals, compared with Lecce’s 0.6, and their matches produced an average of 2.0 second-half goals. Lecce’s home statistics are based on just one match, so the 4–0 result and 100% win rate should be treated with caution; the more reliable recent form points towards Roma maintaining their lead until full-time.