Lecco vs Arzignano Valchiampo: match statistics

Arzignano Valchiampo are in significantly better form: they have won 4, drawn 1 and suffered no defeats in their last 5 matches, earning 13 points. Over the same period, Lecco have failed to win a single game, recording 4 draws and 1 defeat for a total of just 4 points. The visitors have scored 11 goals, averaging 2.2 per match, while the hosts have managed only 4, averaging 0.8. Arzignano’s defence also looks more solid, having conceded 5 goals in five outings compared with Lecco’s 7. Their superior attacking efficiency, unbeaten run and clearly better recent record all point towards an away win.

The BTTS - No scenario is slightly more likely, primarily due to Lecco’s limited scoring efficiency: the hosts have scored only 4 goals in their last 5 matches, averaging 0.8 per game. Their BTTS rate during this period was 40%, compared with 60% for Arzignano, clearly indicating Lecco’s less consistent involvement in matches where both teams score. Arzignano are in significantly better offensive form, scoring an average of 2.2 goals per match and 11 goals in total across their five appearances, so the visitors should create chances. At the same time, they concede only 1.0 goal per game, while Lecco’s xG stands at 1.30, which does not provide the hosts with a sufficiently strong foundation to confidently break through the opposition’s defence. The data instead points towards a result in which Arzignano score, while Lecco may be held scoreless.

The strongest signal is Over 1.5 goals, as the projected total of 2.90 goals is clearly above this line. Arzignano scored an average of 2.2 goals in their last 5 matches, while Lecco conceded 1.4 goals per game over the same period. The hosts scored just 4 goals in 5 appearances, but their average xG stood at 1.30, while opponents allowed their rivals an xG of 1.79. Arzignano’s matches went Over 2.5 goals in 80% of their last five games, compared with 40% for Lecco, supporting the scenario of at least two goals. The 2.5 line remains more balanced, so Over 1.5 goals offers the safer and clearer edge.

Lecco have failed to win any of their last five matches, averaging just 0.8 goals and 0.8 points per game, while Arzignano have won four of their last five, scoring an average of 2.2 goals. The hosts were level at half-time in 60% of these matches, compared with 40% for the visitors, clearly supporting a level score at the break. Lecco scored only 0.4 goals per game before half-time and conceded 0.8, whereas Arzignano kept a clean sheet at half-time in 80% of their recent matches. After the break, the visitors’ advantage increases: they averaged 1.6 goals compared with Lecco’s 0.4, and the second half ended in their favour in 60% of cases. The most likely outcome is therefore a draw at half-time, followed by a full-time win for the in-form Arzignano.