Lech Poznań II vs Chemik Bydgoszcz: match statistics

Chemik Bydgoszcz are showing clearly more consistent current form: they have collected 8 points from their last five matches, recording 2 wins, 2 draws and just 1 defeat, while Lech Poznań II have lost 4 of their last 5 games. The visitors have scored 11 goals during this period, compared with 9 for the hosts, but Lech’s defence has conceded as many as 14 goals—an average of 2.8 per match. Chemik have also been far from flawless defensively, conceding 10 goals in five games, so a both-teams-to-score scenario remains realistic. In the available season data, Lech won their only match 5:2, while Chemik drew 3:3; however, the significantly stronger recent results trend points towards an away win.

The signal for both teams to score is clear, as both Lech Poznań II and Chemik Bydgoszcz recorded BTTS in 80% of their last 5 matches. The hosts averaged 1.8 goals scored during this period but conceded as many as 2.8, which significantly increases Chemik’s chances of finding the net. Chemik scored an average of 2.2 goals per match, while Lech’s defence allowed opponents to score 14 goals in five appearances. Lech also created solid chances worth 1.93 xG, so they should take advantage of the fact that Chemik conceded an average of 2.0 goals in their last five matches. Chemik’s lower xG of 0.68 is a risk factor, but the league has as many as 78% of matches ending with BTTS and averages 4.67 goals, which is why BTTS - Yes remains the more likely outcome.

The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals, as both teams have been involved in very high-scoring games over their last five matches: the average total was 4.6 goals for Lech II and 4.2 for Chemik. During this period, Lech II scored 1.8 goals but conceded as many as 2.8, while Chemik scored 2.2 and conceded 2.0. Over 2.5 goals landed in 100% of the hosts’ last five matches and in 80% of the visitors’ games, while both teams scored in 80% of cases on both sides. Lech II’s average xG is 1.93, clearly higher than Chemik’s 0.68, but the hosts’ weak defense increases the visitors’ chances of contributing to the scoreline. The projected total of 3.10 goals provides a strong safety margin for the 1.5 line, whereas the 2.5 and especially 3.5 lines are more exposed to variance.

In their last five matches, Lech II have scored an average of 1.5 goals before half-time, compared with just 0.5 for Chemik, while the hosts were leading at the break in 50% of those games. Chemik were trailing at half-time in 50% of their recent appearances, which supports the scenario of the Poznań side taking the lead earlier. After the interval, the hosts won the second half in 50% of their matches, whereas the visitors lost the second half in every game analysed and conceded an average of 2.5 goals during that period. Lech II have poor overall form, with 1 win and 4 defeats in their last five appearances, but Chemik also concede an average of 2.0 goals per match, so the hosts’ first-half advantage has a solid foundation to be maintained. The 1/1 pick is the strongest option, although Lech II’s high average of 4.6 goals in recent matches also increases the risk of a late equaliser or turnaround.