Lech Poznań II vs Flota Świnoujście: match statistics

Lech Poznań II has a clear advantage in chance creation: at home they average 66% possession, 16.4 shots per game and 1.78 xG, while Flota away records 51% possession, 9.1 shots and 1.13 xG. This translates into goals — Lech scored 52 goals this season (avg. 1.92 per home game) versus Flota’s 40 goals (1.62 away) and Lech has a positive home goal difference of +9, whereas visitors have a -2 goal difference in away matches. Defensively the home side’s advantage is also evident: Lech concedes 1.23 goals on average at home and only 6 goals in the last 5 matches, while Flota concedes 1.77 goals away and as many as 14 goals in their last 5 fixtures. Flota compensates for fewer chances with higher shot efficiency (18% conversion vs 12% for Lech), but has a higher share of matches without scoring: 15% vs Lech’s 8%, which limits their realistic prospects. Considering Lech’s average of 1.6 points per game in the last 5 matches versus Flota’s 1.4, together with superiority in xG and possession, I give the home side the greater chance — Lech victory probability 60%.

I back BTTS - Yes — both teams show a high probability of mutual scoring: Lech II has 54% BTTS this season, Flota 62%, and in the last 5 matches both teams have 80% of games with goals for both sides. xG and shot metrics confirm this trend: Lech has xG_for 1.37 and a seasonal goals average of 1.46 with 11.2 shots and 5.4 on target, while Flota has xG_against 1.97 and concedes 1.77 goals per match on the season, which increases the risk of conceding. In the last 5 matches Flota scores 2.0 and concedes 2.8 on average, and Lech scores 1.6 and concedes 1.2, i.e. roughly 3.6 goals per match combined in that period, which favors Goal/Goal. Additionally clean sheet rates are low: 31% for Lech and 23% for Flota, so a clean sheet for either side is less likely; therefore I assess BTTS probability at 78% vs 22% for No Goal.

Lech Poznań II at home averages 1.46 goals scored with xG 1.37 on 11.2 shots and 5.4 shots on target, while Flota Świnoujście records 1.62 goals with xG 1.13 but concedes a lot of xG (1.97), indicating weaker defense. In the last 5 matches Lech averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded (attacking xG 1.89), and Flota averaged 2.0 scored and 2.8 conceded (attacking xG last 5: 0.86), so Flota has recently been involved in high-scoring games. Seasonally 69% of Lech’s matches and 77% of Flota’s matches finish over 1.5 goals, and both teams have a very high share of games with at least 0.5 goals (92% and 100%), which strongly favors a minimum of two goals. Scaling opponents’ offense yields an estimate of about 1.75 goals for the home side and 1.35 for the visitors (total ~3.10), which is above the league average 2.95 and gives a strong signal for Over 1.5. Therefore I recommend betting Over 1.5 as the strongest direction; Over 2.5 looks moderately likely (~65%), and Over 3.5 is less likely (~30%).

First-half statistics strongly indicate Flota leading at the break: in the last 5 matches Flota led at half-time in 60% (3 of 5) and scored 11 first-half goals versus Lech II’s 2; average first-half goals in those five games are 2.2 for Flota versus 0.5 for Lech II. Meanwhile Lech II has the advantage after the break — in the last 5 fixtures the hosts averaged 1.25 goals in the second half while Flota only 0.6, and Lech earned on average 1.25 second-half points versus 0.2 for Flota. Chance quality favors Lech: Lech’s xG is 1.37 versus Flota’s 1.13, Lech records an average of 5.4 shots on target against Flota’s 3.4, and Flota concedes on average 1.97 xG against compared to 1.46 for Lech. Season-to-date Flota has 20 first-half goals versus Lech’s 10 and concedes on average 1.77 goals per match compared to the home side’s 1.15, which together suggest Flota may lead at half-time but Lech is more likely to mount a turnaround after the break. Therefore I recommend HT/FT 2/1 as the strongest signal.