Lech Poznań II vs Zawisza Bydgoszcz: match statistics

I predict an away win (Zawisza Bydgoszcz). Zawisza has 22 wins this season versus Lech II's 14 and has conceded only 21 goals compared to Lech's 45, indicating a clear defensive advantage. In the last 5 matches Zawisza won 4 times and averages 2.4 points per match, while Lech's form is 2-2-1 with 1.6 points per match. Away, Zawisza concedes 0.93 goals on average and keeps a clean sheet in 47% of games, whereas Lech at home concedes 1.27 and records only 13% clean sheets, giving the visitors a significant defensive edge. Offensively, Lech at home scores 2.27 goals per game, registers 5.17 shots on target and has xG 1.75, while Zawisza away averages 1.87 goals and xG 1.63, so the hosts can create threats, but Zawisza’s form and defensive stability translate into higher chances for the visitors.

Lech Poznań II at home averages 2.31 goals scored and concedes only 0.44 per match, records 63% clean sheets and a season BTTS of only 31%, which strongly argues against BTTS - Yes. Zawisza away averages 1.87 scored and 0.93 conceded, has 47% BTTS and fails to score in 20% of away matches, so the risk of a No Goal from the visitors also exists. In the short term the hosts’ last 5 matches show 80% BTTS and 1.6 average goals conceded, while the visitors’ last 5 show 20% BTTS (0.6 conceded), giving mixed signals. xG and shot stats indicate both teams create chances (xG 1.95 vs 1.63 and 6.8 vs 4.5 SOT, conversion 12% vs 15%), but Lech’s seasonal defensive edge (63% CS) and low season BTTS 31% carry more weight than short-term variability. Therefore I forecast No BTTS with a 60% probability and recommend a “No” (No Goal) bet.

I calculated expected goals as the mean xG of both sides: for Lech (xG for 1.95 + xG against Zawisza 1.16)/2 = 1.56, for Zawisza (xG for 1.63 + xG against Lech 1.06)/2 = 1.34, giving a total of 2.90 goals. This season Lech II scores 2.31 goals at home and concedes 0.44, while Zawisza away averages 1.87 scored and 0.93 conceded, so the home side has the stronger attack and better home defense on season metrics. Over/under stats show Over 1.5 occurred for the home team in 75% of matches and for the away team in 60%, while season Over 2.5 is 44% for Lech and 47% for Zawisza; however in the last 5 matches Lech had Over 2.5 in 80% of cases and in those 5 games averaged 2.4 scored and 1.6 conceded, which increases the risk of a higher total. The hosts average 17.13 shots and 6.8 on target versus Zawisza’s 13.25 and 4.5, indicating an advantage in chance creation and raising the probability of home goals; the projected total 2.90 is above the 2.5 line but below 3.5. As a result I recommend the Over side on the 2.5 line as the strongest signal: I estimate Over 2.5 at 62% (Under 38%), Over 1.5 at 88% and Over 3.5 at 29%, based on xG 1.56/1.34 and recent form (last 5 matches).

Lech Poznań II led at half-time in 11 of their matches to date (79%) and score on average 1.43 goals before the break while conceding only 0.14, which strongly supports the hosts leading after 45 minutes. Across full matches Lech average 2.31 goals scored and 0.44 conceded, while Zawisza have 1.87 scored and 0.93 conceded; additionally the hosts’ xG is 1.95 versus the visitors’ 1.63 and they average 6.8 shots on target compared to 4.5, indicating higher quality chances for Lech. Lech also keep a clean sheet at half-time in 86% of fixtures and have a 63% rate of full-match clean sheets at home, which increases the likelihood that the lead will hold until the end. On the other hand Zawisza are in good form (4 wins in their last 5, 80%), so I do not rule out a draw or a turnaround, which justifies assigning 14% to the 1/X scenario and 4% to 1/2. Considering Lech’s dominance in half-time statistics along with the advantage in xG and shots, the safest scenario is 1/1, to which I assign 61% probability.