Lech Poznań vs Legia Warszawa: match statistics
Lech Poznań vs Legia Warszawa: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Lech Poznań played Legia Warszawa in Ekstraklasa (Poland). The match was played on 26 April 2026. Final score: 4:0.
Current form
Lech Poznań: 3-2-0, 2.20 points/match. Legia Warszawa: 2-3-0, 1.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Lech Poznań scores 1.76 and concedes 1.41 goals per match. Legia Warszawa scores 1.17 and concedes 1.10. League average: 2.72 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Lech Poznań 69%, Legia Warszawa 62%. Over 2.5: Lech Poznań 69%, Legia Warszawa 38%. League level: BTTS 59%, Over 2.5 52%.
xG, shots and style
Lech Poznań has higher xG: 1.92 vs 1.74. Lech Poznań: 17.2 shots per match, Legia Warszawa: 15.1.
Match halves
Lech Poznań: half-time lead 41%, second-half goals 0.86. Legia Warszawa: half-time lead 28%, second-half goals 0.72.
Goals by minute
Lech Poznań: 31-45+ (12 goals). Legia Warszawa: 76-90+ (11 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Ekstraklasa: 2.72 goals per match, BTTS 59%, Over 2.5 52%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-0. Average goals 0.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
The favorites are hosts Lech Poznań: at home they average 2.29 goals per game and register 6.71 shots on target, while Legia away only has 1.14 goals and 4.14 shots on target per match. Lech posts a higher home xG (2.08) than Legia away (1.72) and better chance conversion (12% conversion vs 8% for Legia), and additionally the hosts have had no home games without scoring (0% such matches). On the other hand Legia defends more solidly on the road — visitors concede on average 1.43 goals and have 14% clean sheets, whereas Lech concedes 1.86 goals at home and has only 7% clean sheets. In the last 5 matches Lech averages 2.2 points per game (3 wins, 2 draws), and Legia 1.8 points per game (2 wins, 3 draws); moreover Legia records 50% draws away, which increases the probability of a point split. Considering Lech’s dominance in chance creation (on average 19 shots and 6.71 shots on target at home), higher xG (2.08 vs 1.72) and better finishing efficiency, I forecast a home win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Statistics indicate an advantage for the BTTS - Yes scenario: season BTTS rates are 53% for Lech and 71% for Legia (average 62%), while the league BTTS rate is 59%. In the last 5 matches Lech has BTTS 80% and scores on average 2.2 goals per game (11 goals in 5), and Legia has BTTS 60% and scores 1.2 on average (6 goals in 5), suggesting Lech is in attacking form and both teams score regularly. Both teams' xG is high: 1.77 for Lech and 1.72 for Legia, total xG ~3.49 is clearly above the league average goals 2.73, which increases the likelihood of goals from both sides. On the other hand Lech concedes on average 0.8 goals this season (1.2 in the last 5), and Legia concedes 1.43 goals away this season (0.6 in the last 5) and has only 14% clean sheets versus Lech's 40%, so Legia's susceptibility to conceding also favors BTTS. Considering the teams' seasonal 62% average BTTS, recent trends and high xG, I assess BTTS probability at 72% vs 28% and pick the selection "yes".
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
I project 2.97 goals in this match (Lech 1.54, Legia 1.43), based on a weighted combination of season xG: Lech 1.77 and Legia 1.72, and recent 5-game form (Lech xG 2.13, Legia xG 1.50). Lech has averaged 2.2 goals in the last 5 matches (11 goals), Legia 1.2 goals (6 goals); seasonally Lech concedes 0.80 goals, Legia 1.43, indicating an offensive edge for Lech. Season Over/Under rates show Lech had 53% of matches with over 1.5 goals, Legia 93%, and a Poisson model with λ=2.97 yields P(over 1.5) ≈ 80%. For the 2.5 line the model returns P(over 2.5) ≈ 57%, and for 3.5 ≈ 35%, i.e. moderate support for Over 2.5 and weaker for Over 3.5. The strongest signal is Over 1.5 (recommendation: Over at 1.5), since the combination of xG and recent form produces the highest probability of passing that threshold.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Lech shows a strong signal to lead at the break: they led at half-time in 40% of matches this season and in 60% of their last five games, while Legia have led away in only 14% of season matches (40% in their last five). Before the break Lech concedes an average of 0.27 goals, and Legia concedes an average of 0.93 goals away; in the last five Lech scored an average of 1.2 goals by half-time compared to Legia’s 0.6, indicating a home advantage in the first half. At full-time Lech also have superior points and result metrics: 1.6 points per home game this season versus Legia’s 0.93 points away, and a win percentage of 40% vs 14% (season). xG is similar (1.77 for Lech vs 1.72 for Legia), but Lech concede fewer goals over the season (0.8 vs 1.43), so they have a higher probability of maintaining a lead and turning a good first half into a victory. For these reasons the most reliable scenario is Lech leading at half-time and winning the match (1/1).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Lech Poznań | Legia Warszawa | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 35% | 29% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Lech Poznań is 22% better for: last-5 form.
2.2 pts / match - Lech Poznań · 1.8 pts / match - Legia Warszawa
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Lech Poznań is 50% better for: goals scored per match.
1.76 goals / match - Lech Poznań · 1.17 goals / match - Legia Warszawa
Legia Warszawa is 28% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.41 goals / match - Lech Poznań · 1.1 goals / match - Legia Warszawa
Lech Poznań scores in 86% of matches (25 of 29 matches), while Legia Warszawa keeps a clean sheet in 28% (8 of 29 matches).
Legia Warszawa scores in 79% of matches (23 of 29 matches), while Lech Poznań keeps a clean sheet in 28% (8 of 29 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Lech Poznań
Over / Under - Legia Warszawa
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Lech Poznań is 37% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.66 pts / match - Lech Poznań · 1.21 pts / match - Legia Warszawa
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Lech Poznań - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 41% of matches and wins 45%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Legia Warszawa - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 28% of matches and wins 28%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +4 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 80% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (12 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (11 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Lech Poznań
Legia Warszawa
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ekstraklasa).
Teams vs league
| Lech Poznań | Liga | Legia Warszawa | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.17 | 2.72 | ▼ 2.28 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 69% | 59% | ▲ 62% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 69% | 52% | ▼ 38% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 28% | 24% | ▲ 28% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 79% | 73% | ▲ 76% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 76% | 78% | ▼ 62% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Lech Poznań 0 - 1 - 0 Legia Warszawa. Average goals 0.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Lech Poznań vs Legia Warszawa?
The Ekstraklasa match finished Lech Poznań 4:0 Legia Warszawa. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Lech Poznań vs Legia Warszawa?
Lech Poznań score 1.76 goals per game on average and Legia Warszawa 1.17. The Ekstraklasa average is 2.72 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 52% of games. Both teams score in 69% of Lech Poznań's matches and 62% of Legia Warszawa's.
What form are Lech Poznań and Legia Warszawa in?
Over the last 5 games Lech Poznań have a 3-2-0 record (2.20 points per game) and Legia Warszawa 2-3-0 (1.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Lech Poznań vs Legia Warszawa?
The statistical background for Lech Poznań vs Legia Warszawa — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.