Lechia Gdańsk vs Korona Kielce: match statistics
Lechia Gdańsk vs Korona Kielce: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Lechia Gdańsk played Korona Kielce in Ekstraklasa (Poland). The match was played on 6 April 2026. Final score: 4:2.
Current form
Lechia Gdańsk: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. Korona Kielce: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Lechia Gdańsk scores 1.96 and concedes 1.85 goals per match. Korona Kielce scores 1.27 and concedes 1.12. League average: 2.71 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Lechia Gdańsk 73%, Korona Kielce 50%. Over 2.5: Lechia Gdańsk 73%, Korona Kielce 46%. League level: BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 52%.
xG, shots and style
Lechia Gdańsk has higher xG: 1.65 vs 1.59. Lechia Gdańsk: 13.4 shots per match, Korona Kielce: 14.6.
Match halves
Lechia Gdańsk: half-time lead 38%, second-half goals 1.08. Korona Kielce: half-time lead 42%, second-half goals 0.62.
Goals by minute
Lechia Gdańsk: 76-90+ (13 goals). Korona Kielce: 16-30 (9 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Ekstraklasa: 2.71 goals per match, BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 52%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I back the home win (1) because Lechia holds a clear offensive edge: at home they score 2.23 goals per game and have 51 goals this season versus Korona’s 1.08 goals per away match and 33 goals overall. Lechia averages 5.85 on-target shots and 14.38 total shots per home game with a conversion rate of 16%, while Korona on the road records only 3.54 on-target and 13.69 total shots with an 8% conversion; the visitors fail to score in 38% of away matches compared to just 8% of Lechia’s home games. Defensively Korona concedes 1.15 goals per away match and Lechia 1.38 at home, but xG indicates Lechia creates better chances: Lechia’s home xG is 1.77 versus Korona’s away xG of 1.48, and xG against Korona away is 1.82 vs 1.43 against Lechia. Lechia’s home record is strong — they win 54% of home matches and have a +11 goal difference at home, while Korona has only 31% away wins and a negative goal difference of -1; in the last 5 matches Lechia averages 1.4 points and Korona 1.2. Based on these data I assess the probabilities as: home 62%, draw 20%, away 18%.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Data analysis favors the 'BTTS - Yes' scenario: seasonal BTTS rates are 46% for Lechia at home and 54% for Korona away, with a league average BTTS of 57%. In the last 5 matches both teams have scored 7 and conceded 7 (avg 1.4 scored and 1.4 conceded per match each), and their recent BTTS rates are 40% (Lechia) and 60% (Korona). This is supported by xG metrics: Lechia has an attacking xG of 1.70, while Korona allows xG of 1.82 away, and Korona generates xG 1.48 versus Lechia who concedes xG 1.43. Additionally, Lechia has scored 51 and conceded 48 this season, while Korona has scored 33 and conceded 29; clean sheet percentages are 38% for Lechia and 23% for Korona, indicating a clean sheet is not the dominant scenario. Considering the higher xG values, the league BTTS 57% and the goals/clean sheet balance, I assign a 60% probability to 'yes' and 40% to 'no', therefore I recommend a 'BTTS - Yes' bet.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The xG-based model forecasts 1.76 goals for Lechia (Lechia attack xG 1.70 vs average xG conceded by Korona 1.82) and 1.46 goals for Korona (Korona attack xG 1.48 vs average xG conceded by Lechia 1.43), for a total of 3.22 expected goals. Seasonal stats confirm the tendency: 85% of Lechia’s matches and 77% of Korona’s matches finished Over 1.5, while Over 2.5 applies to 54% of Lechia’s matches and 38% of Korona’s; in the last 5 fixtures the Over 2.5 rate was 60% for Lechia and 80% for Korona. Action data supports the goal potential: Lechia averages 15.54 shots and 4.08 on target, Korona 13.69 shots and 3.54 on target, with conversion rates of 9% vs 8%, consistent with the calculated xG. In light of these figures the strongest signal is Over 1.5 — I estimate its probability at 92% (Under 1.5 8%). Over 2.5 I estimate at 62% (Under 38%), while Over 3.5 remains unlikely at 22% (Under 78%), so I recommend backing the Over line at 1.5 as the safest, data-driven play.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Lechia is the favorite to lead at the break – the hosts have led at half-time in 7 matches (54%) and average 0.85 goals in the first half versus 0.46 for Korona, with 4.08 shots on target per match compared to 3.54. Over the full 90 minutes Lechia also has higher xG (1.7 vs 1.48) and more shots (15.54 vs 13.69), and the hosts win 46% of their matches this season versus 31% for Korona, while Korona fail to score in 38% of games. It should be noted, however, that in the last 5 matches Korona have led at the break in 60% of cases, which increases the risk of an early lead for the visitors, but this is a short-term signal against Lechia’s season-long advantage. Therefore the strongest pick is 1/1 (hosts lead at half-time and win) with a 43% probability; as alternatives I consider 2/2 17% (influence of the last 5), X/X 8% and X/1 5%.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Lechia Gdańsk | Korona Kielce | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 40% | 26% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Lechia Gdańsk is 17% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / match - Lechia Gdańsk · 1.2 pts / match - Korona Kielce
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Lechia Gdańsk is 54% better for: goals scored per match.
1.96 goals / match - Lechia Gdańsk · 1.27 goals / match - Korona Kielce
Korona Kielce is 65% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.85 goals / match - Lechia Gdańsk · 1.12 goals / match - Korona Kielce
Lechia Gdańsk scores in 85% of matches (22 of 26 matches), while Korona Kielce keeps a clean sheet in 31% (8 of 26 matches).
Korona Kielce scores in 73% of matches (19 of 26 matches), while Lechia Gdańsk keeps a clean sheet in 12% (3 of 26 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Lechia Gdańsk
Over / Under - Korona Kielce
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Korona Kielce is 8% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.42 pts / match - Lechia Gdańsk · 1.54 pts / match - Korona Kielce
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Lechia Gdańsk - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 38% of matches and wins 42%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Korona Kielce - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 42% of matches and wins 38%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -3 | +3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (13 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): +5 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (9 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): -7 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Lechia Gdańsk
Korona Kielce
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ekstraklasa).
Teams vs league
| Lechia Gdańsk | Liga | Korona Kielce | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.81 | 2.71 | ▼ 2.38 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 73% | 58% | ▼ 50% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 73% | 52% | ▼ 46% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 12% | 25% | ▲ 31% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 92% | 73% | • 73% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 92% | 77% | • 77% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Lechia Gdańsk 0 - 0 - 1 Korona Kielce. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Lechia Gdańsk vs Korona Kielce?
The Ekstraklasa match finished Lechia Gdańsk 4:2 Korona Kielce. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Lechia Gdańsk vs Korona Kielce?
Lechia Gdańsk score 1.96 goals per game on average and Korona Kielce 1.27. The Ekstraklasa average is 2.71 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 52% of games. Both teams score in 73% of Lechia Gdańsk's matches and 50% of Korona Kielce's.
What form are Lechia Gdańsk and Korona Kielce in?
Over the last 5 games Lechia Gdańsk have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Korona Kielce 2-0-3 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Lechia Gdańsk vs Korona Kielce?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.