Lechia T. Mazowiecki vs ŁKS Łódź II: match statistics

Lechia T. Mazowiecki have a clear form advantage: they won their last home match, while ŁKS Łódź II have lost all of their last five games. At home, the hosts average 5 goals from 18 shots, including 13 on target, whereas the visitors score just 0.5 goals per away match. The difference in attacking quality is reflected in shot conversion: 28% for Lechia compared with just 7% for ŁKS, who fail to score in 50% of their away fixtures. Lechia have a 100% home win record, while the Łódź side have lost both of their away matches so far and concede an average of 2 goals on the road. The hosts’ defence is not impenetrable either, allowing opponents an xG of 2.24, but the visitors’ attacking weakness makes a home win considerably more likely.

The latest results point to an open game: BTTS - Yes occurred in 80% of Lechia’s last five matches and in 60% of ŁKS II’s games, compared with the league average of 67%. During this period, Lechia scored an average of 1.6 goals but conceded as many as 1.8, while ŁKS II, despite scoring only 0.6 goals per match, allowed opponents to score 2.0. The visitors’ attacking potential is higher than their scoring record suggests, as their average xG from the last five matches stands at 1.56, while Lechia allows opponents an xG of 1.78. The hosts also create plenty of chances, averaging 1.84 xG and 6 shots on target per match, whereas ŁKS II’s defence concedes an average of 2.0 goals. The risk to this pick is the visitors’ five consecutive defeats and low goalscoring average, but Lechia’s weak defence and the xG data give a slight edge to the BTTS - Yes / Goal-Goal outcome.

The strongest selection is Over 1.5 goals, as both teams have clear defensive issues: Lechia conceded an average of 1.8 goals in their last 5 matches, while ŁKS II conceded as many as 2.0. The hosts create chances worth an average of 1.63 xG, whereas the visitors allow opponents 1.76 xG, supporting a forecast of approximately 1.72 goals for Lechia. ŁKS II have scored only 0.6 goals per match recently, but their average xG stands at 1.56, while Lechia allows opponents 1.78 xG, making a goal for the visitors a realistic possibility. In the teams’ last five matches, games with at least 3 goals occurred in 80% and 60% of cases, respectively, but the 1.5 line offers a significantly greater margin of safety.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Lechia win at full-time, as ŁKS II have lost all of their last five matches, while the hosts have averaged 1.6 goals scored during this period compared with the visitors’ 0.6. The Łódź-based side have been level at the break in as many as 75% of their recent matches, whereas Lechia have averaged 1.0 goal before half-time, compared with their opponents’ 0.5. After the break, the visitors have conceded an average of 1.25 goals and have failed to win any of their five second halves, while Lechia have recorded a draw in the second half in 60% of cases. The hosts’ superiority in the quality of chances created is further reflected in their average of 6.0 shots on target per match, compared with 4.0 for ŁKS II, which is why Lechia have a greater chance of turning an evenly matched opening in their favour.