Leeds United vs Nottingham Forest: match statistics
Leeds United presents solid home form with a 42% win rate at their own stadium and a positive goal difference (+2) in home matches. The hosts record an average of 1.58 goals per match in home games, with an xG of 1.51, which evidences efficiency in attack. Nottingham Forest has poor results on away trips - only 33% wins and a negative goal difference (-6), with a very low scoring average (0.92 goals per away match) and as many as 42% of matches without a scored goal. Although the form of both teams in the last five matches is similar (Leeds 1.4 PPG, Forest 1.6 PPG), Leeds' advantage in playing at their own stadium and Forest's offensive problems away speak for the hosts. However, it should be noted that Leeds occupies 17th place in the table and has conceded a significant number of goals this season (42), which increases the probability of a draw or a surprise.
Leeds United vs Nottingham Forest: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Leeds United played Nottingham Forest in Premier League (England). The match was played on 6 February 2026. Final score: 3:1.
Current form
Leeds United: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match. Nottingham Forest: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Leeds United scores 1.29 and concedes 1.75 goals per match. Nottingham Forest scores 1.00 and concedes 1.46. League average: 2.79 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Leeds United 63%, Nottingham Forest 38%. Over 2.5: Leeds United 58%, Nottingham Forest 50%. League level: BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 54%.
xG, shots and style
Nottingham Forest has higher xG: 1.39 vs 1.38. Leeds United: 12.5 shots per match, Nottingham Forest: 11.8.
Match halves
Leeds United: half-time lead 29%, second-half goals 0.63. Nottingham Forest: half-time lead 17%, second-half goals 0.63.
Goals by minute
Leeds United: 31-45+ (10 goals). Nottingham Forest: 46-60 (7 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Premier League: 2.79 goals per match, BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 54%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 4.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Leeds United presents solid home form with a 42% win rate at their own stadium and a positive goal difference (+2) in home matches. The hosts record an average of 1.58 goals per match in home games, with an xG of 1.51, which evidences efficiency in attack. Nottingham Forest has poor results on away trips - only 33% wins and a negative goal difference (-6), with a very low scoring average (0.92 goals per away match) and as many as 42% of matches without a scored goal. Although the form of both teams in the last five matches is similar (Leeds 1.4 PPG, Forest 1.6 PPG), Leeds' advantage in playing at their own stadium and Forest's offensive problems away speak for the hosts. However, it should be noted that Leeds occupies 17th place in the table and has conceded a significant number of goals this season (42), which increases the probability of a draw or a surprise.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Leeds United | Nottingham Forest | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 32% | 31% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Nottingham Forest is 60% better for: last-5 form.
1 pts / match - Leeds United · 1.6 pts / match - Nottingham Forest
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Leeds United is 29% better for: goals scored per match.
1.29 goals / match - Leeds United · 1 goals / match - Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest is 20% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.75 goals / match - Leeds United · 1.46 goals / match - Nottingham Forest
Leeds United scores in 71% of matches (17 of 24 matches), while Nottingham Forest keeps a clean sheet in 21% (5 of 24 matches).
Nottingham Forest scores in 54% of matches (13 of 24 matches), while Leeds United keeps a clean sheet in 17% (4 of 24 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Leeds United
Over / Under - Nottingham Forest
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Leeds United is 51% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.33 pts / match - Leeds United · 0.88 pts / match - Nottingham Forest
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Leeds United - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 29% of matches and wins 25%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.
Concedes 0.6 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Nottingham Forest - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 17% of matches and wins 29%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -4 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 80% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (10 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): -6 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (7 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): -7 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Leeds United
Nottingham Forest
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Leeds United | Liga | Nottingham Forest | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.04 | 2.79 | ▼ 2.46 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 63% | 55% | ▼ 38% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 58% | 54% | ▼ 50% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 17% | 26% | ▼ 21% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 67% | 73% | ▲ 75% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 88% | 80% | ▼ 75% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Leeds United 0 - 0 - 1 Nottingham Forest. Average goals 4.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Leeds United vs Nottingham Forest?
The Premier League match finished Leeds United 3:1 Nottingham Forest. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Leeds United vs Nottingham Forest?
Leeds United score 1.29 goals per game on average and Nottingham Forest 1.00. The Premier League average is 2.79 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 54% of games. Both teams score in 63% of Leeds United's matches and 38% of Nottingham Forest's.
What form are Leeds United and Nottingham Forest in?
Over the last 5 games Leeds United have a 1-2-2 record (1.00 points per game) and Nottingham Forest 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Leeds United vs Nottingham Forest?
The statistical background for Leeds United vs Nottingham Forest — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.