Leganés vs CD Castellón: match statistics

CD Castellón are top of the table and remain unbeaten after 6 matches, with 5 wins and a draw, while Leganés have a record of 3 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat. The visitors are highly solid defensively: they have conceded only 2 goals this season and allow opponents an average of just 0.67 goals away from home, compared with the 1.00 goal Leganés concede at home. Castellón have won 4 of their last 5 matches and scored 11 goals in that run, while the hosts have scored 5 times over the same period. Leganés have a perfect home record and average a higher xG of 1.91 compared with the visitors’ 1.81, but Castellón control matches more effectively thanks to 58% possession and a significantly stronger defence. The visitors’ superior current form and stability without the ball point towards an away win, although the hosts should create chances to score.

The BTTS - No pick has the edge because Leganés have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their home matches so far, while conceding an average of only 0.8 goals across their last five fixtures. The hosts have recorded BTTS in just 0% of their home games and 20% of their last five appearances, pointing to a frequent scenario in which the opposition fails to score. Castellón are in good attacking form, averaging 2.2 goals in their last five matches and generating an xG of 1.75, so their goal remains a realistic threat. At the same time, the visitors have conceded only 0.4 goals per match during this period, while Leganés average 1.0 goal scored, making it equally likely that the hosts will be restricted. Overall, Leganés’ lower BTTS rates and the solid defensive records of both teams slightly favour the outcome that at least one team will fail to score.

CD Castellón are in very good form: over their last 5 matches, they have averaged 2.2 goals scored and just 0.4 conceded, while Leganés have scored 1.0 goal per game during the same period. The visitors’ attacking potential is supported by an average xG of 1.75 and 6.33 shots on target per match, although their defence allows just 1.11 xG on average. Leganés have a clearly more limited attacking output, with an xG of 1.29 over their last five matches, although their opponents have created chances worth 1.55 xG against them. Despite the arguments for at least two goals, only 33% of Leganés’ matches and 0% of Castellón’s games have gone over the 3.5-goal line, while 67% and 100%, respectively, have finished below it. The projected total of 2.45 goals therefore points to a result in the 2-3-goal range, giving the clearest edge to Under 3.5 goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Castellón victory in the match, as the visitors have won 80% of their last five games while remaining unbeaten, whereas Leganés have won 60% and lost once. Both teams are frequently level at the break: a draw occurred in 40% of their last five matches, with the average combined number of first-half goals standing at 1.0. Castellón nevertheless possess greater attacking potential, with an average xG of 1.81 compared with Leganés’ 1.61, while also averaging 6.33 shots on target per match against the hosts’ 4.33. The visitors’ advantage increases after the break: they have scored an average of 1.4 goals in the second half across their last five matches, compared with just 0.4 for Leganés, and at least two second-half goals were scored in 80% of Castellón’s games. Leganés have kept clean sheets in all three of their home matches so far, making a draw at half-time more likely than an early lead for the visitors; however, Castellón’s superior form points towards a decisive outcome after the interval.