Leganés vs FC Andorra: match statistics

FC Andorra holds a clear advantage in form and attack: in the last 5 matches they have 4 wins and scored 15 goals (3.0 per match), while Leganés has only 1 win and 4 goals in that period (0.8 per match). Season-to-date Andorra has scored 52 goals versus Leganés’ 40, and the away goals average for the visitors is 1.44 versus 1.24 for the home side, which confirms superior offensive efficiency for the visitors. Andorra is more effective in front of goal — 4.83 shots on target and an 11% conversion rate away compared to 4.47 shots on target and a 9% conversion rate for Leganés at home, and the percentage of matches without scoring is 22% vs 35%. On the other hand, Leganés looks better defensively at home: xG against for the hosts is 1.16 versus 1.60 for Andorra away and the hosts concede only 1.00 goal per home match on average, which limits the risk of defeat. Considering recent form (points per match in the last 5: Andorra 2.6 vs Leganés 1.0), the edge in efficiency and the goal output over the last five games, I give the visitors a higher probability of winning, although a draw remains realistic.

Seasonal BTTS indicators are clearly high: Leganés has BTTS in 67% of matches, FC Andorra in 61%, both above the league average of 55%. xG analysis confirms mutual scoring opportunities — Leganés generates on average 1.71 xG per match while FC Andorra concedes 1.60 xG; simultaneously Andorra records 1.44 xG against a Leganés defense that concedes only 1.05 xG. Last 5 matches form shows a large disparity in attacking potency: Andorra scored 15 goals (3.0 per match) versus 4 goals for Leganés (0.8 per match), with both sides conceding on average 1.2 and 1.0 goals respectively over the last 5. Additionally clean sheets are rare (Leganés 28%, Andorra 17%) and shots on target are equal at 4.83 per team, which favors goal exchanges; hence the BTTS scenario is favored. Based on this I assign 72% to "BTTS - Yes" and 28% to "No Goal" as the most likely outcome.

Seasonal over 1.5 shares are 67% for Leganés and 83% for FC Andorra (average 75%), and the league records 2.62 goals per match, indicating a propensity for at least two goals. Home xG is 1.71 versus away xG 1.44, with opponents conceding 1.60 xG (Andorra) and 1.05 xG (Leganés); averaged projections yield 1.66 goals for the home team and 1.24 for the visitors (total 2.90). Last 5 form shows Andorra scored 15 goals in five games (3.0 average), while Leganés scored 4 (0.8), which increases the risk of a higher goal count. Both teams have high BTTS rates: 67% (Leganés) and 61% (Andorra), and clean sheets are rare (28% and 17%), so goals from both sides are likely. For these reasons the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (estimated 78% probability), while Over 2.5 is assessed as a moderate 56%, and Over 3.5 as low at 28%.

Leganés drew at half-time in 61% of their home matches and led at the break in only 17% of games, so a draw at the break is a frequent scenario. FC Andorra are in significantly better form over the last five matches — 80% wins (4 of 5) and led at half-time in 40% of those fixtures; their average first-half goals in the last five is 1.0 versus Leganés’s 0.4. The visitors are very active in scoring after the break: in 83% of their matches they scored at least one goal in the second half, and in the last five games they won the second half in 80% of cases, which suggests they often produce a turnaround after half-time. Although Leganés generate higher xG (1.71 vs 1.44) and more shots (15.33 vs 12.89), their lower effectiveness at half-time (0.56 HT goals) and poor form (only 20% wins in the last five) make the most likely and strongest signal from the data a draw at half-time, with FC Andorra ultimately winning.