Legia Warszawa II vs Wisła Płock II: match statistics

Legia Warszawa II appears the favorite based on home dominance: at home they have an 82% win rate, average 3.09 goals scored per match and concede only 0.64, while Wisła Płock II away averages 1.69 scored and 1.62 conceded per match. The hosts create more high-quality chances — Legia’s average xG is 1.89 versus 1.46 for the visitors, averaging 13.82 shots and 6.0 on target per match compared to 10.75 and 5.17 for Wisła — and have a higher shot conversion rate 22% vs 16%. Form corroborates the advantage: in the last 5 matches Legia has 4 wins and 1 draw, averaging 2.6 points per match, while Wisła has 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss with an average of 2.0 points. Additionally, the hosts’ defense is a strength — 45% of home matches are clean sheets and 0% home losses this season, whereas Wisła has only 15% clean sheets away and 38% losses in away matches. Therefore I assess the chances as approximately 72% for a Legia win, 16% draw and 12% for a Wisła win.

Both teams have high BTTS rates: Legia II 75% and Wisła II 85%, averaging 80%, which is well above the league average of 64%. Additionally, over 2.5 occurs in 75% of Legia’s matches and 77% of Wisła’s matches, and the combination of over 2.5 and BTTS appears in 67% and 77% of cases respectively, indicating high-scoring games with contributions from both sides. In the last 5 matches both teams have BTTS at 60%, with average goals 2.0 for Legia and 1.4 for Wisła and average goals conceded 0.6 and 1.6, so while Legia has defended better recently, Wisła still poses a threat. xG supports this picture: offensive xG 1.53 (Legia) vs 1.46 (Wisła) and xG against 1.61 vs 1.56, and shots on target 4.75 vs 5.17 show that both teams generate real chances. Considering seasonal BTTS 75%/85%, low clean sheet percentages 17% and 15% and the above metrics, I project an 83% probability for BTTS - Yes and 17% for No.

Both teams show clear attacking potential: Legia II averages 1.58 goals per game, Wisła II 1.69, and seasonal xG is 1.53 (Legia) and 1.46 (Wisła), indicating realistic scoring opportunities on both sides. Defensive stats and BTTS reinforce this picture — Legia concedes 1.33 goals on average, Wisła 1.62, and matches involving these teams ended with both teams scoring in 75% (Legia) and 85% (Wisła) of fixtures. The league averages 3.39 goals per game, and seasonal Over 2.5 stands at 75% for Legia and 77% for Wisła; in the last 5 matches Legia scored 2.0 goals on average (conceding 0.6), while Wisła had an xG of 1.69 in the last 5, which together yields estimated xG 1.60 + 1.58 = 3.18 expected goals. Based on this, the strongest signal is Over 1.5 — seasonally 83%/92% for both sides, and the combined probability gives about an 88% chance of at least 2 goals; Over 2.5 is also strong (~76%), while Over 3.5 is less certain (~34%) given the expected 3.18 goals. Therefore I recommend playing Over 1.5 as the safest and statistically justified bet, based on xG, goal averages and high BTTS rates.

Half-time statistics favor Wisła Płock II: the visitors led at the break in 54% of matches and score an average of 0.85 goals by half-time versus 0.64 for Legia II, with their half-time points tally at 25 compared to the hosts’ 10. However, Legia II shows pronounced strength after the break — they average 2.0 points in second halves, win the second half in 64% of cases, and over the last 5 matches averaged 2.6 points after half-time while winning the second half in 80% of games. Additionally, Wisła concedes an average of 1.08 goals after the break and have conceded 7 goals in the 76–90 minute window, whereas Legia scored 7 goals in the same interval, increasing the chance of a late turnaround. In light of these contrasts the most likely scenario is Wisła leading at the break and Legia winning the match (HT/FT 2/1) — I assign it roughly a 30% probability, combining the visitors’ 54% chance to lead at the break with Legia’s high second-half effectiveness (64% and 80%). Alternatively, a half-time draw and a home win (X/1, ~17%) and the visitors holding their lead (2/2, ~14%) are realistic outcomes.