Leicester City vs Burton Albion: match statistics

Leicester City have shown slightly better form in their last five matches, collecting 8 points from 2 wins and 2 draws, while Burton Albion have managed just 4 points and have not won any of those games. Both teams scored 6 goals during this period, but Leicester conceded 5, compared with Burton’s 7, indicating greater defensive stability for the hosts. Burton have drawn four of their last five matches, so a draw remains a realistic outcome, particularly given that both teams opened the current season with a 1:1 result. However, Leicester’s advantage lies in their greater ability to turn evenly matched games into victories, as well as their home-field advantage.

The strongest signal in favor of both teams scoring comes from their recent form: Burton recorded BTTS in 100% of their previous five matches, while Leicester did so in 40%, with both teams scoring 1.2 goals per game during this period. Burton conceded an average of 1.4 goals in their last five fixtures, while their average xG against stood at 1.41, which should give Leicester a realistic opportunity to find the net. The visitors, meanwhile, generated 1.60 xG per match—significantly more than the 1.19 xG Leicester allowed on average—so their goal is also probable. Further support for the BTTS scenario comes from the market’s 75% league hit rate and an average of 3.17 goals per match. Full-season data remains very limited, so greater weight should be placed on the five-match trend, which points to BTTS - Yes.

In their last five matches, Leicester averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while Burton also scored 1.2 goals but allowed their opponents 1.4. The attacking potential of both sides is supported by their recent xG figures: 1.34 for the hosts and 1.60 for the visitors, with xG conceded standing at 1.19 and 1.41, respectively. Both teams scored in 100% of Burton’s last five matches, increasing the likelihood of at least two goals in the game. At the same time, only 20% of Leicester’s and 40% of Burton’s recent matches went over 2.5 goals, so higher lines do not have equally strong support. The safest signal is Over 1.5 goals, as the projected total of 2.55 goals and Burton’s defensive vulnerability clearly support a scenario with at least two goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Leicester victory at full-time. Leicester have been level at the break in 60% of their last five matches, conceding no first-half goals while scoring an average of just 0.4. Burton also tend to start cautiously: they were level after 45 minutes in 40% of their recent matches, although they conceded an average of 0.4 goals in the first half. After the break, the hosts have stronger indicators for turning the game in their favour, averaging 0.8 goals, while Leicester’s overall form stands at 1.6 points per match compared with Burton’s 0.8. The visitors have won none of their last five matches and drew as many as 80% of them, reinforcing the prospect of a closely contested game that ultimately ends with the hosts gaining the advantage.