Leicester City vs Plymouth Argyle: match statistics

Leicester hold a slight edge in the quality of chances created at home: their average xG stands at 1.36 compared with Plymouth’s 1.23 away from home, while the hosts enjoy 73% possession against 35% for the visitors. Both teams register a similar number of shots on target—3 per match—and average 1 goal under these conditions, so the game is expected to be closely contested. Plymouth have, however, posted the better recent record, collecting 7 points from five matches and scoring 9 goals, while Leicester have managed 4 points and 4 goals. The visitors’ defence does allow opponents an xG of 1.66, higher than Leicester’s 1.44, which, combined with the hosts’ significant possession advantage, could prove decisive in a narrow home win. Neither side has kept a clean sheet, while Leicester have conceded 7 goals and Plymouth 10 in their last five outings, increasing the likelihood of both teams finding the net.

The signal for both sides to score is clear, as the seasonal data shows that both Leicester and Plymouth have a BTTS rate of 100%, with neither team keeping a clean sheet. BTTS landed in 60% of Leicester’s last five matches and as many as 80% of Plymouth’s, while the visitors scored an average of 1.8 goals and conceded 2.0. Leicester managed just 0.8 goals per match during this period, but its average xG stands at 1.55, while Plymouth allows opponents 1.17 xG, still giving the hosts a realistic route to finding the net. Plymouth, in turn, has produced an average of 1.72 xG across its last five appearances, while Leicester concedes an average of 1.4 goals, making a goal for the visitors highly probable as well. The league trend further supports this selection, with 71% of its matches ending with both teams scoring. This supports BTTS - Yes / Goal-Goal, rather than BTTS - No, which would mean that at least one team fails to score—not necessarily a 0:0 draw or a match in which neither side scores.

The model expects 2.75 goals, with a projected 1.42 goals for Leicester and 1.33 for Plymouth, clearly supporting at least two goals. Leicester averaged 1.42 xG, while Plymouth allowed opponents 1.66 xG, so the hosts should have good conditions to find the net. In their last five matches, the visitors generated 1.72 xG and scored an average of 1.8 goals, while Leicester conceded 1.4 goals per game during this period. Neither team has kept a clean sheet in the available season data, while in their last five appearances, matches with both teams scoring accounted for 60% and 80%, respectively. The Over 1.5 line offers the greatest safety margin: the projected 2.75 goals is significantly above the threshold, whereas Over 2.5 remains considerably more balanced.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time followed by a Plymouth win, as Leicester were level at the break in 3 of their last 5 matches, scoring just 0.4 goals in the first half over that period. Plymouth averaged 0.8 goals before half-time but went into the interval trailing in as many as 40% of their last five matches, increasing the likelihood of a closely contested opening. After the break, the visitors look clearly stronger: they averaged 1.0 goals compared with Leicester’s 0.4, while the hosts conceded an average of 1.0 goal in this half. Overall match form also slightly favours Plymouth, who scored 1.8 goals and won 40% of their last five league matches, whereas Leicester scored 0.8 goals and lost 60% of their games. The X/2 scenario is therefore the strongest, although Plymouth’s high average of 2.0 goals conceded across their last five appearances leaves a significant possibility of a draw or a turnaround by the hosts.