Lens vs Auxerre: match statistics

Auxerre come into this match in clearly better form: they have recorded 4 wins and no defeats in their last five games, while Lens have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1. Both teams scored 9 goals during this period, but the visitors conceded just 3, averaging 0.6 per match, compared with Lens’ 5 goals conceded, or 1.0 per game. Auxerre have also averaged 2.6 points per match across their last five league fixtures, compared with 2.0 for Lens, confirming the visitors’ greater consistency. Auxerre’s second-place position in the table, compared with Lens in sixth, further indicates the opponents’ superior current level. The visitors’ defensive advantage should offset Lens’ home-field edge, making a narrow Auxerre victory the most likely outcome.

The BTTS signal is mixed: Lens saw both teams score in 40% of their last 5 matches, while Auxerre recorded this outcome in 60%. Both teams scored 9 goals during this period, averaging 1.8 per match, but Auxerre conceded only 3 goals, an average of 0.6, which clearly strengthens the scenario of the home side failing to score. Lens produced just 0.92 xG on average, while Auxerre allowed opponents 1.35 xG, so the hosts’ attacking output does not provide a strong basis for confidently expecting a goal. On the other hand, Auxerre has 1.53 xG, while Lens allows opponents 1.54 xG, making an away goal likely. However, the strongest signal remains Auxerre’s solid recent defensive form, making it more likely that at least one team will fail to score — BTTS - No.

The most useful data comes from the last five matches, as the season indicators in the provided dataset have zero values. During this period, Lens averaged 1.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, resulting in a total average of 2.8 goals per match. Auxerre also scored an average of 1.8 goals per game, while conceding just 0.6, giving their matches a total average of 2.4 goals. The teams also created chances worth 0.92 xG and 1.53 xG, respectively, while Lens allowed opponents 1.54 xG, strengthening the outlook for an away goal. Over 1.5 has a clear advantage, as only two goals are needed for the bet to land, and the projected 2.65 goals combined with both teams’ attacking averages points to a high probability of this scenario.

Auxerre are in clearly better form in terms of results: they have won 80% of their last five matches, averaging 2.6 points per game, while Lens have won 60% and average 2.0 points per match. Both teams held a lead at the break in 67% of the available matches, but Auxerre conceded just 0.33 goals before half-time while scoring an average of 1.0. The second half is crucial: the visitors scored an average of 1.33 goals and won the second half in 100% of their last matches, whereas Lens scored just 0.33 goals and drew every one of those halves. Auxerre’s solid defence, conceding an average of only 0.6 goals per match across their last five appearances, further supports the scenario of them taking the lead before half-time and maintaining it until the final whistle.